The scale of new photovoltaic power plants in 2016: the completion of nearly 80% of the annual target in the first half of the year

This year, the photovoltaic market reproduces the installed tide.
A few days ago, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on the Implementation Plan for Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction in 2016" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). In 2016, the scale of the construction of new photovoltaic power plants nationwide will be 18.1 million kilowatts. Among them, the ordinary photovoltaic power station project is 12.6 million kilowatts, and the photovoltaic leading technology base is 5.5 million kilowatts.
The "Notice" requires that the photovoltaic power generation project using fixed building roofs, walls and ancillary sites, as well as all self-use ground photovoltaic power plant projects, does not limit the scale of construction.
The reporter noted that in addition to the planned target of 18.1GW for new installations in 2016, the Notice also pointed out that new indicators for PV poverty alleviation will be issued subsequently.
This also means that the new installed capacity indicators in 2016 do not include the poverty alleviation indicators for the photovoltaic industry.
The installed capacity is increasing year by year. With the emphasis on environmental protection, the country is paying more and more attention to the development of clean energy. In recent years, with the strong policy support of the central government, the photovoltaic industry has also experienced explosive growth, and the newly added installed capacity has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years.
In the past ten years, the development of China's photovoltaic industry has attracted worldwide attention. The data shows that from 5 MW in 2005 to 15 MW in 2015, it has created an eye-catching “China Speed”.
According to the data of the National Energy Administration, from 2013, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the country was 19.42 million kilowatts, including 16.32 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power plants and 3.1 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics. As of the end of September 2015, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation nationwide reached 37.95 million kilowatts, including 31.7 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power plants and 6.25 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics. From January to September, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in the country was 9.9 million kilowatts, an increase of 161% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power plants is 8.32 million kilowatts, and the newly added distributed photovoltaic installed capacity is 1.58 million kilowatts.
According to the reporter's observation, compared with March 2015, the national new PV power plant construction scale required by the National Energy Administration was officially adjusted from 15.GW to 17.8GW when the draft was drafted. Last year's PV index was slightly less than 18.1GW this year, which is Said that this year's PV indicators are greater than last year's indicators.
According to Shang Yan, an energy expert at the Institute of Quality Medicine, plus this year's PV poverty alleviation indicators and additional indicators that are not yet known, in 2016, the installed capacity of PV will exceed the installed capacity in 2015.
In an interview with the reporter of China Sankei Shimbun, Shang Yan said that in the second half of 2016, the photovoltaic industry will usher in explosive growth.
According to industry observers, in the next five years, the scale of PV poverty alleviation will be around 15GW, that is, the annual increase will reach 2GW to 5GW. That is to say, this year's 18.1GW new installed capacity target, plus 2GW to 5GW of PV poverty alleviation new installed capacity, in 2016, China's total installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach at least 20.1GW.
The power-down price node boosted the wave of rushing on June 30 this year (hereinafter referred to as "630"), which was originally a very common year-end boundary. However, for PV companies, "6•30" is a sensitive number. .
According to the relevant regulations, photovoltaic power generation projects that have been registered for annual scale management before 2016 will implement new electricity price standards if they fail to complete grid-connected power generation by June 30, 2016.
This means that the subsidies for photovoltaic power stations in Class I, II and III resource areas will be reduced by 0.1 yuan, 0.07 yuan and 0.02 yuan respectively.
Under the influence of the “6•30” measures, China's PV companies have once again set off a “lively” scene, and a new wave of rushing to install is being staged.
For example, on June 7 this year, Longji shares signed an investment intention agreement with the People's Government of Lijiang City, Baoshan Municipal People's Government and Chuxiong People's Government of Yunnan Province to invest in the construction of Lijiang's 5GW single crystal silicon rod project and Baoshan annual output of 5GW. The single crystal silicon rod project and Chuxiong's annual production of 10GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project reached a cooperation intention. In terms of production capacity of single crystal modules, Longji shares will be 1.5GW at the end of 2015, and are expected to reach 5GW by the end of 2016 and 6.5GW by the end of 2017.
The reporter noted that under the stimulus of “6•30”, PV companies also frequently sent good news in the first half of this year. According to media analysis, as of July 20, 26 of the 38 PV companies in the two cities have announced interim results. Among them, 22 companies' net profit in the first half of this year pre-increased, accounting for 85% of the number of companies announced. Longji shares rank first in the industry with a net profit of over 800 million yuan.
According to the data, in the first quarter of 2016 alone, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in the country was as high as 7.14 million kilowatts, which is nearly half of the increase in 2015 and 70% in 2014.
According to another data, in the first half of 2016, China's solar PV installed capacity exceeded 13GW.
Gao Jifan, chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, co-chair of the Global Solar Energy Council, and chairman of Trina Solar, said in public that many companies are rushing to get the impact of the “6•30” policy. The data for the second quarter has not yet come out, but the installation volume will not be small. It may be 13 to 15 GWs by the end of June, so that the first half of the year will be able to install the full year goal.
Shang Yan also believes that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has increased significantly in the first half of the year, and it has a great relationship with the photovoltaic power generation price.
In some areas, the light-restricted power limit is serious. In the background of the “hot” of photovoltaics, it is hidden from the crisis. In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has undergone extensive development, and has embarked on a dangerous "crossroads." The metamorphosis is the "label" for the development of the photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic power generation structure is unbalanced, and power consumption has always been a difficult problem to hinder the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.
Some analysts believe that in the first half of this year, the scale of new PV power plants is likely to exceed 15GW, leaving less than 3GW in the second half of the year, which means that the grid connection capacity of photovoltaic power plants in the second half of this year will be less than the first half.
According to the latest news released by the National Energy Administration, in the first quarter, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the country reached 50.31 million kilowatts, an increase of 52% over the same period of the previous year. In the first quarter, photovoltaic power generation was 11.8 billion kWh, an increase of 48% year-on-year. However, the national abandoned light limit is about 1.9 billion kWh.
Mainly occurred in Gansu, Xinjiang and Ningxia, in which Gansu abandoned light limit of 840 million kWh, the light rejection rate was 39%; Xinjiang (including the Corps) abandoned light limit of 760 million kWh, the light rejection rate was 52%; Ningxia abandoned light limit Electricity is 210 million kWh, and the light rejection rate is 20%.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy of Xiamen University, said in an interview with the reporter of China Sankei Shimbun that the rate of light rejection is high, which is a waste of resources for enterprises and the whole society.
It is understood that the problem of the abandonment of light and electricity in some provinces in China has a great relationship with factors such as the lag in power grid construction, lack of market support and the continuous growth of thermal power installed capacity.
Shang Yan believes that after the rush to install the first half of 2016, the scale of China's power stations has further expanded, which undoubtedly increases the possibility that the problem of light and power cuts will continue to deteriorate.
In fact, in some provinces in China that have abandoned light and electricity, the National Energy Administration has for the first time in this "Notice" to severely limit the power supply, the grid connection environment and the difficulty of new energy consumption, such as Yunnan, Xinjiang and Gansu. The region has implemented measures to stop or suspend the issuance of indicators.
In addition to the implementation of the "restriction order" in Gansu and other regions, the reporter also saw that the "Notice" stipulated that there are no construction scale ceilings in six regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hainan and Tibet.
In an interview with the reporter of China Sankei Shimbun, Wang Jun, a researcher at China Research Institute, also believed that the "Notice" is a further optimization of the problem of abandoned light. Projects that exceed the national plan are prone to risks, in order to protect the fundamental interests of entering the enterprise. To suspend existing projects and prevent further expansion of risks.
Shang Yan believes that in the future, PV development should continue to improve conversion efficiency. Abandoning light and limiting electricity is not a problem that can be solved in a short period of time. It avoids energy waste through the way of near consumption, while implementing the policy, the Chinese government It is necessary to speed up the construction of power grids and promote the upgrading of related technologies to establish a complete channel for new energy power transmission and completely solve the problem of power cuts.
"The pattern" is unbalanced and needs to be adjusted. "On the one hand, the photovoltaic industry is staged a new wave of rushing to install. On the other hand, the power-restriction of electricity is increasing." Shang Yan told reporters that while reducing waste of resources, it must also take into account In the long-term development of the photovoltaic industry, at present, it is imperative to solve the problem of abandoned light.
It is worth noting that in addition to the strong support for the photovoltaic industry, the central government has put forward higher requirements for the photovoltaic industry through project management, photovoltaic consumption and other policies to optimize resource utilization.
Recently, the National Energy Administration’s “Notice on the Investigation and Implementation of the Relevant Construction Conditions for Photovoltaic Power Generation” issued by the National Energy Administration’s Comprehensive Department requires that measures to eliminate light and power cuts should be taken in areas where light is obsessed or there is a risk, and new measures for 2016 will be made. After increasing the scale of photovoltaic power generation construction, there will be no commitment to reduce light and electricity (no light rejection rate of 5%), and attach the opinion of provincial power grid enterprises on the full consumption of photovoltaic power generation (the light rejection rate does not exceed 5%). .
Lin Boqiang believes that areas such as Gansu have abandoned light and electricity, and Beijing has to encourage projects. In theory, the relationship between the two is conflicting. However, in order to develop clean energy, the government can only encourage projects.
“For the surplus areas, the only way is to ease. For example, the “Notice” restricts some provinces from continuing to project, and the general direction is correct from the photovoltaic power generation pattern in China.” Lin Boqiang said that even all the supporting facilities in Gansu They are all well-built, selling electricity to Beijing, and Beijing will not buy it. There are many costs here, and no one pays for these costs.
Undoubtedly, the only core way to resolve PV capacity is to solve the demand problem. Even if the product is good, no one buys it.
Some industry observers believe that the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry in the “6•30” era will be highlighted. There will be a new round of shuffling.
"The market is good. Everyone goes to invest. If there is more investment, there will be excess, and investment will stop. Maybe in the second half of this year and next year, there will be an adjustment in the supply and demand relationship in the domestic market. There will be a round of reshuffle." Gao Jifan said Some enterprises with comprehensive competitiveness, high technical level, good management quality and relatively complete financial statements will further increase in this round of adjustment. On the contrary, those enterprises with relatively low technical level and insufficient financial strength will face elimination in this round of adjustment. This is the law of market development.

Lin Boqiang believes that it is necessary to implement a "cooling down" for new energy companies that have previously been rushed to install, which will promote rational investment by enterprises.