Liu Yuhua: Prospects for the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation

A few days ago, the National Energy Administration issued the “Circular on Implementing the Demonstration Area for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Application”, which clarified the list of the first batch of 18 demonstration areas for photovoltaic applications, followed by the National Development and Reform Commission’s release of “On leveraging prices to promote the photovoltaic industry. The “Healthy development notice” clarified that “the implementation of the full-battery policy for distributed photovoltaic power generation is based on an electricity price subsidy standard of 0.42 yuan per kilowatt-hour.” These two documents have caused great sensation in the industry, investment community and financial community. People are mixed. In response, the reporter interviewed the well-known planner who participated in the project declaration, the solar market research expert, and Mr. Liu Yuhua, the strategic director of Beijing Yuanfang Power Renewable Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd.

Someone is holding, please help me clarify

Reporter: Mr. Liu, how are you! Congratulations to Beijing Yuanfang Power Renewable Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd. has obtained the project owner of Haidian Park, Haidian District, Haidian District, Haidian District, the largest one of the 18 demonstration areas. How do you feel about this?

Liu Yuhua: First of all, I would like to clarify that this interview does not represent the motivation of the distant land. It only represents myself.

What I think should be congratulated is not the power from afar, nor is it the participation of any one of the distributed enterprises, but the introduction of a national policy. In the period when the photovoltaic industry is in the doldrums, it is most congratulated that the country has intensively introduced photovoltaic policies to encourage and promote the development of the photovoltaic industry and start the domestic market. The project owner who is in the demonstration area of ​​distributed photovoltaic power generation application has obtained a mission and assumed a responsibility. For enterprises participating in distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, the mission is more important than honor, and the responsibility is greater than the opportunity.

Reporter: According to rumors in the circle, you joined the remote power team and played an irreplaceable role in declaring the application of the distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration area. It also played a certain role in the national policy for the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration areas. The role of promotion. Some people even said that without you, there would be no success in the demonstration of the power of remote power declaration. Is that right?

Liu Xiaohua: Who said these things? Do you believe it? I do not believe these words myself. When companies do anything, they must rely on the team. One person can't decide anything. A big project cannot be accomplished by any individual efforts. The introduction of national policies relies on the joint efforts of many experts and leaders. Personally speaking, I personally cannot influence the formulation of national policies. A company will not affect the formulation of national policies.

Please also clarify the rumors for me. I can even think that this is a person with ulterior motives. Regardless of the purpose, this is not good for me and it is not good for the distant power. The project owners who can obtain the largest demonstration area at the remote power, first, rely on the support from the government of Beijing Municipality and Haidian District. They gave great support in the project declaration process, sometimes at 9:00 or even 10:00 in the evening. Later, they were still talking to me on the phone to discuss the issues in the project declaration and checking the source of the calculation data. Second, relying on the support of industry leaders, the Secretary-General of the Photovoltaic Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society, Wu Dacheng, gave a comprehensive report on the project. The guidance has contributed to him. He is my best teacher. Third, due to the support of friends in the industry, I have encountered problems in the application process. I have had exchanges and discussions with many colleagues in the industry. Many people are sincere. Gave me guidance; Fourth, relying on the cooperation of the distant power team, the remote power team is not the best team in the industry, but at least in the declaration of the demonstration area on the matter a clear division of labor, cooperation is very good, I believe that the remote power is also Can perform this demonstration area project well.

To consider the distribution from the microscopic point of view based on the actual conditions

Reporter: Despite the country's intensive policies, there are still 12 5 planning distributed 10GW tasks, but the industry is not optimistic about the feasibility of distributed photovoltaic power generation, and even many questions. For example, the subsidy is too low, the payback period is too long, the enthusiasm of the owners is not high, and the enthusiasm of institutions and banks for investment is not high. At the China Photovoltaic Conference, everyone discussed the issue of distributed photovoltaic power generation, but it was more of a concern and more of a lack of confidence. What do you think for this?

Liu Xiaohua: How can you not be optimistic? Since it is not optimistic, how can everyone pay attention to the degree of distributed attention at the PV conference?

What is the business pursuit? profit. Maximizing profits is the eternal pursuit of the company, especially small and medium enterprises. The quick success and instant benefits cannot say, but to ensure the rapid development of the enterprise, there must be a better profit margin, and the larger the profit margin, the better. This is normal. Even if the subsidy is raised to a dollar, there will be complaints. Believe it or not? The 0.42 yuan subsidy is enough for general industrial and commercial electricity users. It is more appropriate. Of course, a slightly higher point will be more appropriate. Our initial expectation was 0.45 yuan. However, for large industries, households using electricity, and household electricity, 0.42 yuan is too low to operate. If this policy can cater for different types of electricity consumption and adopt a subsidy for subsidized electricity prices, the implementation of distributed photovoltaic power generation across the country will have a greater effect. Of course, individuals believe that the 0.42 yuan is currently mainly for the introduction of demonstration areas.

If the demonstration area is concerned, the feasibility of 0.42 yuan/kWh full-price electricity subsidy is indisputable.

For the issue of the payback period, according to the conditions of solar energy resources and electricity prices in Beijing, the project's project recovery period is about 6 years. It seems to be a bit long, but the project's internal rate of return can reach 14%. Think this rate of return is not enough to attract investment?

Why is the enthusiasm of the electricity owner not high? It is because our project developers themselves do not think thoroughly. Only macroscopic considerations are not examined microscopically. Staying on the macro level, many project developers have encountered not only the problem of low enthusiasm for the owners of electricity, but also concerns about the settlement methods of the owners of electricity and electricity, and the vitality of the owners themselves.

Some people are worried that the average life expectancy of Chinese SMEs is only 2.5 years, and the average life expectancy of Chinese listed companies is 5.8 years, but the subsidies and operations of distributed photovoltaic power generation are based on 20 years, and the payback period is as long as 6 year. In other words, it will not be possible to wait until the number of years for investment recovery. The owner of electricity may be closed down. Where does the rest of the income come from? At first glance, this inference is logical and sounds logical. However, I think this is basically an inference on paper, lacking basic realism. If we consider it from a microscopic point on the premise of realistic conditions, this inference seems absurd.

Distributed photovoltaic power generation, who will benefit from the investment, most of the electricity investment by owners

Reporter: How do you think from the microscopic point of view, how can the benefits of distributed photovoltaic power generation developers or investors be guaranteed? How to increase the enthusiasm of the electricity owner?

Liu Yuhua: Next I will talk about this issue. Your question is very good, but your intervention is a bit redundant. Just kidding, don't mind.

I once did an incomplete survey in Haidian District and found that a building with more than 6 floors can use space to fill the photovoltaic power generation system on the roof. The electricity generated by the building is less than 25% of the total electricity consumption of the entire building. And the higher the floor, the smaller the ratio. The survey results have fundamentally solved the feasibility of distributed photovoltaic power generation and have a positive impact on the business model design of distributed photovoltaic power generation.

First, as long as the city of the park we have chosen will not be transformed into Yumen City, and will not become Detroit of the United States, the park will not become a ghost town. The park you have chosen will never lose its owners. Do not say forever, at least not lose the owner in the next 20 years. That is to say, no matter how bustling the enterprises in the park are and how their lives will change in the next 20 years, the public electricity use of the park buildings will at least not be unfounded. It may also change the owner, but at the very least there will be no masterlessness. So your power station income will not be insecure and your settlement target will not disappear out of thin air. Of course, if you really misfortune to choose a city like Yumen and Detroit, that's another thing.

Secondly, as long as you do not have any problems with the load-bearing and waterproof guarantee of power station roofs, there are no problems with lightning protection and wind resistance guarantees, and there are no problems with the quality assurance of the cables, it will not only have no impact on the safety of power-use owners, but also They can also give them a 10% discount on electricity prices and give them a "green hat" that is energy-efficient and uses clean energy. So that the owner not only saves money but also gains good social benefits. From the technical level of current photovoltaic power plants, these problems are not a problem. As long as it is a qualified operating company, the concerns of the power-using business owners are superfluous. The owners do not understand that your media also have responsibilities. I hope that your media will help the industry do a good job in this area. Thank you!

Third, there are also concerns that the electricity owners will use too little electricity each year for holidays, weekends, etc., resulting in a smaller proportion of self-use electricity in the buildings and affecting the overall yield of distributed rooftop power stations. I was very worried about this problem before. In the calculation model I designed before, I put these variables on the inside. But with the release of my findings. This problem is solved. If you think about it, as an industrial and commercial power consumer, how much time does the public utility part of a building spend 100% of the day off during the day? How many hours? According to my understanding, there is no Zhongguancun Software Park, no Tsinghua Science Park, no Yongfeng Science Park, and no Dongsheng Science Park. At a minimum, there is no problem at all in the daytime to ensure that more than 30% of the electricity used by the public electricity sector is used. 90% of our declarations are very conservative. In fact, we can guarantee 100% of our own use.

Fourth, some people say that the investment in the project is too large and the payback period is too long. There is basically no possibility that the electricity owner will invest himself. I think that's the wrong message you gave to the owner of electricity.

I don't know if you have ever done calculations. In fact, the most cost-effective way to distribute PV power is to invest in the owners themselves.

For example, if you go to the roof of the owner and look around, you have seen the building plan of the owner. Then, tell the owner that your roof area is 800 square meters and you can install an 80kWp distributed system. I hope the owner can use it for his own use.

The owner will first ask: How much money do I need to spend?

You told him that he needed 800,000 yuan. You can recover your costs in six years, and use electricity for free in the next 14 years.

The landlord asks you: How much electricity can you send each year?

You told him: almost 80,000 more.

The owner certainly does not do it. why? Owners think about it, I have to spend 800,000, six years to recover the cost? What can I do with 800,000 in six years? In addition, I use almost 500,000 kWh of electricity each year for the public electricity use. You can send 80,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity each year. How much of my problem can you solve with 14 years of free electricity? Nine cows, I'm still in trouble. No!

Hey, talk about it?

But you can change the angle. First of all, ask the owner how much electricity the public electricity costs each year?

The landlord told you, oh, about half a million.

You told him that the cost of building a distributed rooftop power plant is equal to paying one-and-a-half year's electricity beforehand. Then you can save electricity costs by 80,000 yuan each year. You can also receive a subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kWh, including factors that reflect the rise in electricity prices. Distributed rooftop power stations can save more than 2.5 million yuan in operating for 20 years, and can also earn a "green hat" of energy-saving, emission reduction and clean energy. There is one extra item in the declaration of some projects and special funds.

This proceeds owners do not do it? And this is not investment, it is necessary consumption. The electricity bill can't be saved. If you don't get a roof power station, you have to give it to the power company. There is no subsidy for the power company. This is the necessary cost for the operation of the building and it is also payable to anyone who pays it. How much electricity should you pay for one and a half years? not much. You can earn a profit of 250 yuan, and it is for your own use. There are no transactions, and no taxes are generated. too much? Enough. Deal!

So say that distributed photovoltaic power generation, who will benefit from the investment. The investment of the electricity owner is a consumer investment, which is the most profitable; institutional investment, the internal rate of return of 14%, is also very impressive. Therefore, the feasibility of distributed photovoltaic power generation is beyond question. The state has already realized that the development model of high environmental costs will be an impediment to economic development. Enterprises that proactively reduce energy consumption and reduce pollution emissions inevitably will receive more and more policy support. The general trend in the world, and those who are fluent in the retreat, all of whom understand this truth, the key is to see if you can seize the opportunity to walk in the forefront of the times.

Reporter: It seems that Mr. Liu's confidence in distributed photovoltaic power generation is very abundant and we are moved by it. Do you think that distributed photovoltaic power generation is the trend?

Liu Yuhua: I have no doubt that the country has expressed great determination and I think we can do a good job. In the change of energy structure, distributed photovoltaic power generation will play a major positive role.

National Photovoltaic New Deal Cannot Be Discredited

Reporter: Recently, on some occasions, I heard some people have some bad remarks about the application of remote power applications for distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration areas. It is said that you refused to respond to this. Can you talk about it?

Liu Yuhua: Someone questioned me about this matter. I do not know what basis these skeptical views are. There are three points I need to clarify:

I. The demonstration area for distributed photovoltaic power generation application is an important policy of the country. The process of its formation is rather tortuous. The National Energy Administration issued several documents. People in the industry always feel the fog and see the flowers. . Subsidy standards, subsidy methods, and settlement procedures are all very clear. This is a good thing for the entire industry. Why do distributed photovoltaic power generation become a hot topic for the participants in the China Photovoltaic Conference? I think the main thing is that everyone has expectations and hopes for him. All kinds of attitudes and opinions show that everyone has great interest in this policy. I think everyone can discuss its feasibility and even its rationality, but it should not be discredited.

Second, the remote power application of distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration area has paid a lot of effort, reporting procedures and procedures in full compliance.

III. I believe that the 18 demonstration areas with less than 1GW are only the beginning of distributed photovoltaic power generation. There is still a considerable distance from the installation target of the 12th Five-Year Plan. According to the current situation, the state will inevitably continue to introduce even better Policies to promote the further implementation of distributed photovoltaic power generation. As the saying goes, you can't eat hot tofu, and you can't scald yourself.

Reporter: Thank you, Mr. Liu. We will continue to pay attention to the development of the photovoltaic industry.

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