In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index was not shocked. The US dollar index encountered strong resistance near 74, and there is still a possibility of strength in the short term. The euro and Australian dollar areas are consolidated and there is room for downside. At the same time, Moody's downgraded the sovereign debt rating of Japan, but the market reaction is not strong. The Bank of Japan has said that if the yen continues to appreciate, it will intervene.
The dollar is lower in the weak
Last Friday, the annual global central bank governor meeting was held in the United States. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech at this annual meeting that the progress of the US economic recovery is far less than expected, and the Fed will adopt further stimulus policies to help the economic recovery. But Bernanke did not propose a clear economic stimulus plan.
Last week, the US dollar index was basically stable at the 74-integer mark. In terms of data, the US durable goods orders in July increased, stimulating the market's hopes of avoiding the fate of the second recession. Zhang Deqian, a foreign exchange analyst at the Bank of Communications Beijing Branch, said that the US dollar exchange rate showed strong resilience last week as the Fed is likely to propose a new round of stimulus plans. From the technical point of view, the fluctuation range of the US dollar index has gradually narrowed, and it has been effectively supported several times around 73.5, with a greater resistance at 74.7.
The domestic exchange rate difference between the RMB exchange rate and the domestic exchange rate
Last week, the RMB market interest rate fell slightly. After the central bank issued interest rates rose by 8 basis points in the previous week, it remained stable last week, which also largely dispelled the market's interest rate hike expectations. Market participants judge that the possibility of the central bank's adjustment of interest rates and deposit reserve ratio is currently small.
The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week. The spot price of domestic and foreign RMB appeared to have a spread of about 200 points, and the arbitrage window was opened again. At the same time, the arbitrage space between NDF (non-deliverable forward foreign exchange transactions) and DF (foreign exchange forward transactions) has basically disappeared, because in the past period of time, domestic DF has a more obvious trend of RMB appreciation.
In combination with the European debt crisis, the market has not seen the dawn, the market confidence is low, and concerns about the future global economy's double bottom and even the second recession are heating up rapidly. China's export prospects are not optimistic, and the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi will inevitably bring about a negative impact.
Liu Dongliang, senior economist at China Merchants Bank, pointed out that the sharp increase in China’s exports is caused by the rise in export prices. Under the pressure of the European debt crisis and the downgrade of the US rating, external demand is also expected to show rapid growth, excluding price factors. The overall situation of China's exports in the second half of the year is not optimistic.
Focus on systemic risks in the Eurozone
Greek government bond prices have fallen sharply, and France has announced a fiscal austerity plan. Under the current situation, the fiscal austerity in the euro zone has become a trend.
It is worth noting that due to the different economic developments and financial conditions of various countries, the possibility of forming a “European Union Bond†consensus is very small, and the Euro therefore has obvious downside risks.
In Europe, Germany's August IFO business climate judgment index suffered the biggest decline after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, increasing investors' worries about the European economy that was in deep debt crisis. In the European debt crisis, Finnish Prime Minister Katainen said last week that if there is no guarantee, Finland may withdraw from the Greek rescue plan and propose to use the gold reserves and the shares held by the state to provide guarantees for the rescue. Moody's said that the search for guarantees indicated that some euro-zone countries lacked the sincerity to participate in the bailout and exerted more pressure on Germany and France to take stronger measures to support the project. Zhang Deqian pointed out that affected by this, investors waited and watched the sentiment last week, and the euro against the US dollar last week was basically consolidating at the 1.44 integer. The euro has a slight correction in the market outlook, and once it falls below the 1.4030 where the 200-week moving average is located, the euro may have a unilateral downside against the dollar.
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