US PV double-reverse hammers attacked the two sides of the Taiwan Strait

**Abstract** Although the WTO recently ruled that the United States imposed improper tariffs on solar photovoltaic products from China, this decision has not significantly benefited the "double anti-dumping" measures initiated by the U.S. against Chinese PV products. Following the announcement of countervailing duties last month, the U.S. Department of Commerce released its preliminary findings on anti-dumping investigations against Chinese PV products. Interestingly, this time, Taiwanese manufacturers were also hit hard by these trade barriers, which marks a shift from previous patterns. **Taiwanese Enterprises Face Severe Challenges** Initially, many in the Taiwanese industry believed they would benefit from lower tax rates compared to mainland Chinese companies, expecting a competitive edge. However, the reality proved otherwise. The U.S. Commerce Department found that the dumping margins for Chinese mainland products ranged from 26.33% to 165.04%, while those for Taiwanese products were between 27.59% and 44.18%. This result caught many off guard, leading to sharp declines in stock prices and media headlines like “Taiwan’s battery manufacturers are facing extinction” and “Solar anti-dumping duties exceed expectations.” Experts suggest that the over-optimism of Taiwanese firms was misplaced. Zhang Wei, an investment director at Junsheng Investment Management, pointed out that the assumption that the U.S. would impose lower taxes on Taiwan was incorrect, resulting in a major setback for the industry. **The Impact on the Industry** According to Qi Jiazheng, a research manager at TrendForce, the lack of differential tax rates between mainland and Taiwanese products undermines any potential advantage for the latter. Furthermore, the “double anti” measures have disrupted the transfer effect, making it harder for mainland companies to bypass tariffs through Taiwan. As a result, the future of Taiwanese solar companies is now more uncertain than ever. **Overseas Expansion Becomes Critical** In response, many Taiwanese firms are accelerating their overseas production strategies. Companies like Motech, Sino-US Jinggang, and Xujing Energy are expanding into Japan, North America, and Europe. This move is seen as essential for maintaining competitiveness in the U.S. market. Some companies are even considering limit price agreements with the U.S. to avoid the full impact of anti-dumping duties. **Mainland Companies Remain Confident** Despite high combined tax rates ranging from 29.3% to 82.38%, mainland Chinese companies remain optimistic about the U.S. market. Trina Solar and Yingli Solar, two of the largest players, have stated their commitment to the American market, emphasizing their ability to adapt and maintain their positions. While the tax burden is significant, the diversification of markets—especially in Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia—has helped reduce reliance on the U.S. and European markets. **Diverse Market Strategies** Sun Guangbin, president of the Solar Energy Products Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce, noted that 40% of mainland PV exports go to Asian countries, while only 20% go to the U.S. and Europe. This broadened approach gives Chinese companies more flexibility and resilience. **Opinions from Different Sides** Supporters of the “double anti” measures, such as @SolarWord, argue that the decision closes loopholes used by Chinese firms to evade tariffs through Taiwanese components. They believe it helps level the playing field for U.S. manufacturers. On the other hand, some U.S. industry groups, like the American Fair Solar Alliance, see it as a major setback, warning of rising costs and job losses. Chinese companies, including Trina Solar and Yingli, strongly oppose the claims, calling them baseless and reaffirming their confidence in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Taiwanese companies are exploring alternative strategies, such as focusing on high-efficiency products and expanding into non-U.S. markets. **Conclusion** The “double anti” measures have reshaped the landscape for both mainland and Taiwanese solar companies. While challenges remain, the industry is adapting, with overseas expansion and product innovation becoming key to long-term success.

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