The PV industry's growth mode reversed the signs of recovery from export dependence

Foreword: Just a few days ago, the legendary China’s PV industry’s “double defeat” was finally cut. However, in addition to causing individual media to “get a fuss”, it is still in a state of turmoil, but it has been met with the collective indifference of Chinese PV companies. It is no wonder that as early as 2013, China's new PV installed capacity reached 12.92 GW. Even though the United States was among the top three in the world at the time, its annual installed capacity of 4.8 GW was still a bit shabby in front of China.

In 2014, the National Energy Administration set a target of 14 GW for China's new PV installations. In contrast, a newly released statistical report shows that in the first 10 months of this year, the number of new PV installations in the United States is less than 2 GW.

Obviously, unlike before 2013, China's PV industry today is no longer so dependent on the US or European markets. This is in line with the "new normal" of China's economy proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping: China's economy should rely more on domestic consumer demand and avoid relying on external risks of exports.

" Growing up troubles"

China's PV has been repeatedly blocked by double reverse

China's photovoltaic industry is indeed worthy of pride.

According to the "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Yellow Book (2013-2014)", since 2010, China's investment per thousand tons of polysilicon has dropped by 47%, the comprehensive energy consumption per kilogram of polysilicon has dropped by 35%, and the per capita annual output of polysilicon enterprises has increased. 165%, the comprehensive utilization rate of by-products of backbone enterprises has reached more than 99%; the investment per megawatt of silicon battery has dropped by more than 55%, and the silicon consumption per watt of battery has decreased by 25%. The backbone enterprises have single crystal, polycrystalline and silicon-based thin film batteries. The conversion efficiency increased from 16.5%, 16%, 6% to 19%, 17.5%, and 10%; the investment in photovoltaic power generation system dropped from 25 yuan/watt to 9 yuan/watt.

However, just as under the “new normal”, the Chinese economy has to focus on “growth troubles”. As it has experienced rapid growth, China’s photovoltaic industry is also facing many “troubles”.

The rapid rise of China's photovoltaics has made the "original" of photovoltaics on the other side of the ocean feel uneasy. They hope to continue to master global PV technology and control the market's right to speak by curbing China's PV development.

In October 2011, the United States took the lead in launching a "double-reverse" investigation on China's US PV panels, setting off a first-round strike against China's PV.

In March and May of 2012, the US Department of Commerce initially imposed a minimum of 2.9% and a maximum of 4.73% of punitive countervailing duties on China's photovoltaic cells, and a minimum of 31.14% and a maximum of 249.96% of China's photovoltaic cell collection. Punitive anti-dumping tariffs; in November 2012, the United States unexpectedly announced the final result of the “will impose 18.32% to 249.96% anti-dumping tariffs on China's photovoltaic cells, and 14.78% to 15.97% countervailing duties”.

After the Americans, the EU first released the "anti-dumping investigation on the photovoltaic products (crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, cells and silicon wafers) of China in September 2012, and officially announced to China in November 2012. The establishment of the PV anti-dumping investigation.

Fortunately, under the attention of Premier Li Keqiang and personally under the command of the State Council, in July 2013, the Ministry of Commerce sent good news that China and the EU finally reached a price commitment on China's trade dispute over PV products in Europe: before 2015, China's export of PV products to Europe The lower price limit will be set at 0.56 Euro/W, and the total amount will be limited to 7 GW/year. Compared with the expectation that “China’s PV products will be subject to a punitive tariff of 47.6%”, the “price commitment” is definitely a happy result.

However, the containment of China's photovoltaics did not stop here. On January 23, 2014, the US Department of Commerce announced that it would launch anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against China's exports of photovoltaic products to the United States, as well as simultaneously launching Taiwan's Taiwanese PV exports. Anti-dumping investigation of products.

Different from the first "double-reverse" of the US-to-China PV mentioned above, in the second "double-reverse", the scope of investigation set by the US Department of Commerce includes ingots, silicon wafers, batteries, and components. Almost all crystalline silicon photovoltaic products.

As a result, China's photovoltaics have been completely blocked in the third place (mainly Taiwan, China) for deep processing, assembly, and re-export to the United States to avoid tariffs.

On June 3 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that it had initially ruled that China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States received excessive government subsidies, ranging from 18.56% to 35.21%; on July 25, the US Department of Commerce announced The anti-dumping preliminary ruling results of China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products have determined that there are dumping behaviors of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States and Taiwan in China. The dumping margin of mainland China products is 26.33% to 165.04%, and the dumping margin of Taiwan products is 27.59%. 44.18%.

On December 17, the US Department of Commerce announced the final result of the “double-reverse” of China PV. It determined that the dumping margin of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States in China was 26.71% to 165.04%, and the subsidy range was 27.64% to 49.79%. The dumping margin of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States in Taiwan is 11.45% to 27.55%.

According to the plan, this ruling was put into practice (the customs officially levied a "double-reverse" tariff), and it also needs to obtain the final ruling of the US International Trade Commission (to be announced on January 29, 2015). But based on history, the US International Trade Commission has never overturned the US Department of Commerce's ruling. In the industry's view, the second "double opposition" situation in the United States is almost irreversible.

Policy support multifaceted flowering

Distributed power generation troubles

In the face of the "double opposition" siege of each road, it is obviously a very effective countermeasure to stimulate domestic demand.

Beginning in March 2013, the management has launched a series of new policies in response to the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, high-profile, large-scale and strong, covering the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry, grid-connected, financial support, etc. , almost omnipotent.

The most noteworthy thing is that the "Notice on the use of price leverage to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry" and the "Interim Measures on the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects" have been set off in the construction of large-scale ground power stations and distributed photovoltaic systems. Notice".

Among them, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Playing the Role of Price Leverage to Promote the Healthy Development of Photovoltaic Industry" issued in August 2013: "The centralized photovoltaic power plants are divided into three categories (divided by the duration of sunshine), and each implementation is 0.9 per kWh. Yuan, 0.95 yuan, 1 yuan of electricity price standard (on-grid price)"; and the National Energy Administration's "Notice on the Interim Measures for the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects" issued by the National Energy Administration in November 2013 is clear: "The distributed photovoltaic power generation project The electricity price subsidy standard was set at 0.42 yuan per kWh."

Under the combined effect of the series of policies, in 2013, China achieved an annual new PV installed capacity of 12.92 GW, ranking first in the world. At the same time, the National Energy Administration also has the goal of setting a target of 14 GW (distributed 8 GW, 6 GW of photovoltaic power plant) for the year of 2014.

Compared with 2013, China's new PV power generation capacity is 12.92 GW, of which distributed PV is only 0.8 GW. The National Energy Administration's 2014 target, but plans to increase the total installed capacity of distributed PV by 6.2% last year. It has risen to nearly 60% this year.

For a long time, compared with the centralized ground power station, distributed photovoltaics are not fortunate, and the income from the "residual power online" is far lower than the "spontaneous use" income, and the "spontaneous use" part of the power generation, electricity revenue There is no guarantee (the owner can use it or not), etc., and financial support is always the biggest headache for distributed PV projects.

However, in September 2014, the “Notice on Further Implementing Policies Related to Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation” issued by the National Energy Administration made this dilemma greatly improved.

The notice pointed out that in the future, for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects using building roofs and affiliated sites, a mode of “spontaneous use, surplus electricity access” or “full online access” can be selected during project filing. The total power generation of the project will be acquired by the grid enterprises according to the on-grid tariff of the local photovoltaic power station; on the ground or by the construction of non-electric consumption facilities such as agricultural greenhouses, the grid will be connected to the grid at 35 kV and below (the northeast region is 66 kV and The following), the photovoltaic power plant project with a single project capacity of no more than 20,000 kilowatts and the power generation is mainly consumed in the grid-changing station, is included in the distributed photovoltaic power generation scale index management, and implements the local photovoltaic power station benchmark on-grid price.

In the industry's view, the New Deal has weakened the boundaries of distributed PV “spontaneous use” and “residual power access” and increased the revenue from the surplus electricity.

Taking Shandong's desulfurization price of 0.4469 yuan/kW as an example, before the release of the New Deal, the revenue from the distributed photovoltaic project to generate electricity on the Internet was about 0.8 yuan/about (0.4469 yuan/kWh plus the national distributed subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh). It is lower than the self-sufficiency income of about 1.2 yuan / kW (the general industrial power is about 0.85 yuan / kW plus the national distributed subsidy of 0.42 yuan / kWh).

After the implementation of the New Deal, the income level of distributed surplus power Internet access may reach 1 yuan / kWh (the solar energy resources can enjoy 1 yuan / kWh on-grid price), which is 25% higher than the current 0.8 yuan / kWh. about.

In fact, under the power structure of “East and Xisheng” in China, it is more difficult to focus on developing distributed PV. First of all, the eastern coastal areas are not so good, and the lighting conditions are not good enough to create a large number of conditions for the construction of large-scale ground power stations (sufficient sunshine and cheap land). Secondly, under the premise of long construction period and large investment in the power grid, large-scale construction of photovoltaic power stations in the western region will certainly face the bottleneck of power grid construction lag, and the phenomenon of “sun-bathing” and “abandoning light” of power stations will also occur. At the same time, the West-East Power Transmission will also cause serious power loss (the loss of the West-East Power Transmission can reach 30%).

The photovoltaic faucet is gradually gone

Key companies in Saiwei resume production after two years of production suspension

Under the “new normal”, China’s PV has changed from “mainly relying on exports” to “more reliance on domestic consumer demand”, and it has achieved the effect of “drugs to disease”. The vibrancy of the domestic demand market quickly passed this “positive energy” to all aspects of Chinese PV.

Not long ago, the photovoltaic power generation profile released by the National Energy Administration in the first three quarters of 2014 showed that the grid-connected capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in China reached 3.79 GW, of which the newly added photovoltaic power grid has a grid-connected capacity of 2.45 GW. The distributed PV grid-connected capacity is 1.34 GW; the national photovoltaic power generation is about 18 billion kWh, equivalent to 200% of the 2013 annual power generation.

And "Between 2011 and 2013, China's PV companies have fallen into losses, and some are even on the verge of bankruptcy," and now have reversed.

According to the data contained in the "Photobook for the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry (2013-2014)", as of the end of 2013, the number of polysilicon enterprises in China increased from 7 at the beginning of the year to 15 at the beginning of the year. Most of the battery backbone enterprises turned losses into profits, and major enterprises In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin exceeded 15%, and some companies' annual net profit turned positive. In 2014, the performance of Chinese PV companies will be further improved.

At the enterprise level, following the bankruptcy of China's photovoltaic faucet - Wuxi Suntech was "successful" by Shunfeng Optoelectronics, in February this year, in order to resolve the problem of overseas debt, another Chinese photovoltaic leader who was on the verge of bankruptcy - LDK LDK in its The registered Cayman initiated a foreign debt restructuring through a “provisional liquidation”.

The restructuring involves more than $700 million in debt, including 1.7 billion high-yield bonds issued by Singapore LDK in Singapore (priority notes), and LDK silicon materials (Savi LDK registered in Cayman, operating polysilicon) A subsidiary of the business) a $240 million equity financing (preferred shares).

In the end, after nearly 10 months, on December 17, the restructuring transaction between LDK and senior note holders and preferred stockholders was officially completed. This marks the successful completion of the LDK overseas debt restructuring. With this restructuring, LDK has received 99% creditor support.

It is worth mentioning that in July this year, after more than two years of production suspension, the Mahong Silicon Material Factory, which had made great contributions to LDK, was able to resume production. In the past, this accumulated investment of about 12 billion yuan, a full-capacity polysilicon project with a capacity of 15,000 tons per year of polysilicon, is also the key to the LDK capital chain break.

In the industry's view, LDK has carried out cold hydrogenation transformation (reducing production cost) and resuming production of Mahong Silicon Material Factory, which has become the confidence of LDK to boost the capital market and realize the positive cash flow layout. The key point is that this layout is full of the deep meaning of LDK's optimistic view of the solar-grade polysilicon market.

Innovation is remarkable

"Homogenization" remains to be resolved

In the "new normal" of China's economy put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping, the most core content is "continuous optimization and upgrading of economic structure" and "from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven". This is also the key to the healthy development of China's photovoltaic industry and its long-term maintenance of market position.

What is remarkable in 2014 is that the silane fluidized bed polysilicon production line that GCL-Poly started to produce in September has controlled the production cost (full cost) of polysilicon to less than US$10/kg. According to the previous plan, to achieve this cost target, it is necessary to wait until the second phase of the project is put into production (the first phase of the GCL-Silicon silane fluidized bed is 12,000 tons/year, and the second phase of the 13,000 tons/year project will be produced in 2015).

It is reported that the production cost of polysilicon in the silane fluidized bed of 10 US dollars / kg is reduced by nearly half compared with the current cost-optimized modified Siemens method, which is based on its low power consumption and low investment cost of the production line. Compared with the improved Siemens process line with an investment of about 2 billion yuan per 10,000 tons of production line, the silane fluidized bed only needs 1 billion yuan per 10,000 tons of production line.

In fact, the industrialization of silane fluidized bed polysilicon has faced many difficulties, such as how to ensure the high quality of polysilicon and achieve mass production. According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, the output of the single-furnace of the GCL-Poly fluidized bed furnace can reach 3,000-6,000 tons, which is a significant increase over the 300-500-ton capacity of the single-furnace of the Siemens reduction furnace.

Although there is no lack of innovation, the "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Yellow Book (2013-2014)" has poured a little "cold water" on China's photovoltaics. In this regard, the "Yellow Book" is quite pertinently summarized: China's key technologies such as photovoltaic materials and equipment There is still a gap with the advanced level of foreign countries, and basic research needs to be strengthened. At the same time, financial support and policy support are too biased in application, and insufficient support for manufacturing R&D and technological transformation.

China's PV industry does have a lot of problems to be solved. When some Chinese PV companies are still busy running “roads”, controlling costs, and shouting for raising subsidies, Google [microblogging] is leading the development of solar drones. Siemens and Bosch are secretly implementing the "SolarCity Plan" (Sun City Plan), and although the industry has many questions about SunPower's 7 times concentrating power generation, it has to admit that if it truly breaks through the technology such as heat sink system Difficulties, subversion will be just around the corner.

Perhaps these unconventional innovations seem impractical, or extremely high cost, so that they do not have the conditions for industrialization, but this is the "leading strategy" of countries such as Europe and the United States, and is the new game of photovoltaics - cross-border.

For example, “SolarCity Plan”, which Siemens and Bosch are implementing, is intended to transform a city through solar energy utilization, which involves not only photovoltaic power generation, but also BIPV, BAPV and solar thermal technologies.” A Chinese living in Europe Photovoltaic experts have told the Securities Daily reporter that "unexpectedly, the Germans have developed and implemented the plan based on the fact that China's urbanization will continue for at least 20 years."

“The Germans hope to rely on their leading technology, create a sample of SolarCity, and standardize all technologies in order to achieve the goal of leading China's urbanization.” Similarly, in the opinion of experts, Google has invested heavily in solar drones. In addition to considering the large-scale civilian use of drones, it is mainly based on the “leading strategy”. “They hope to lead the creation and market cultivation instead of blindly following the market changes.”

In retrospect, China's photovoltaics still have serious homogenization problems from upstream raw materials to manufacturing to downstream applications. The direct consequence of this is the spread of price wars. For example, the current profit margin of photovoltaic cells and components can only be maintained at around 5%. Although, with the large-scale launch of the domestic PV application market under the guidance of the policy, China PV has discovered another “gold mine”: Yangshao subsidies, the internal rate of return (IRR) of the construction and operation of photovoltaic power plants can reach 10%. But unfortunately, China's PV has soon formed a situation of “getting together” on the application side, and the problem of homogenization in photovoltaic power plants all over the west still exists on a large scale. People are worried that this will trigger a certain crisis again.

For example, even if the western region has sufficient sunshine and cheap land, the sparsely populated nature determines that it does not have the ability to absorb electricity on the spot. The lag in power grid construction means that the power station here will face the risk of “power”.

"cross-border" new gameplay appears

Combine with architecture to create a new direction

Not long ago, a world-class event called "FIA World Endurance Championship - Le Mans 24 Hours" was held in Le Mans, France, and the Aston Martin team won the first place in the GTEAM group. It is said that the winning Aston Martin has installed a flexible film power generation system provided by Chinese companies.

This year, the Hong Kong-listed company, which is called Hanergy Film Power, has done a lot of cool things.

In April, with the "Iron Man" prototype, Tesla President ElonMusk also appeared in Tesla's first customer handover ceremony in Beijing, a super charging station called SUPER CHARGER, which was designed and built by Hanergy. Hanergy's copper indium gallium selenide thin film photovoltaic module; Hanergy also provided a fixed photovoltaic system solution for Tesla's first super charging station in China's Jiading Automobile City in Shanghai.

In September, as the official solar partner of the FIA ​​Formula E Championship in the 2014 season, Hanergy developed a device that can be housed in one using the soft characteristics of the copper indium gallium selenide thin film photovoltaic module. In a 20-foot standard container, four operators can install a fast-installed power station in half an hour. It is said that under the sunshine conditions in Beijing, it can provide about 70 degrees of electricity per day.

“In fact, using gallium arsenide technology with a conversion rate of about 35%, solar energy is enough to provide more power for the car. But at present, the cost of doing so is too high.” The above-mentioned experts in Europe believe that “however, the market It is often favored by those who are prepared, once the electric vehicle is truly popularized, the market that is as large as several times the centralized ground power station, or just the application of solar film power generation to the roof to provide energy for some of the automotive equipment, applied to electric Charging the car is enough to create huge profits for this company."

Today, the market value of Hanergy's thin film power generation has exceeded HK$100 billion (7.7597, 0.0000, 0.00%), making it the highest listed company in the global PV industry.

Looking at the future, combined with architecture, is also a very fashionable new way of cross-border PV.

As early as 2009, another Chinese company, China Xingye Solar Technology Holdings Co., Ltd., invested in the construction of the “Land and Light Chai” off-grid power generation project in Dongao Island, Zhuhai. According to Xingye Solar, the installation area of ​​the project is 7,100 square meters, which consists of 1 megawatt of photovoltaic power generation, 50 kilowatts of wind energy and 2000 kWh of energy storage. Currently, 1.46 million kWh of electricity can be delivered in one year. Electricity used by resident residents throughout the island."

Is this somewhat similar to the "SolarCity Plan" being implemented by Siemens and Bosch mentioned above?

Perhaps the gap is still big. However, for Societe Solar, which has been in the curtain wall and construction field for nearly two decades, "SolarCity" is the goal.

“Integrating and efficiently using solar energy in a building and a city to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, and even replacing traditional energy with renewable energy. This is a systematic project. There will be many technologies to be used. For example, turning light into The heat conversion efficiency can reach about 50%.” Liu Hongwei, Chairman of Xingye Solar Board, told the “Securities Daily” reporter, “Based on the experience accumulated in the construction field and photovoltaic field, in BIPV, BAPV, especially in the future energy-saving buildings. The company has certain advantages. Therefore, we have been actively cooperating with the state to develop energy-saving building standards."

In addition, Liu Hongwei also revealed to reporters that “the housing construction department will soon introduce a series of policies to support the application of photovoltaic, solar thermal and other technologies in construction and support the development of building energy conservation”.

For more than ten years, China's photovoltaics have developed at such a high speed and on a large scale that the European and American “original ancestors” who believe that the traditional photovoltaic technology path has no room for cost reduction is so shocked that they have to launch “double-reverse” to control China's photovoltaic industry. Development to continue to enjoy the right to speak.

However, when China's PV really reduced investment per megawatt of crystalline silicon cells by more than 55%, and the silicon consumption per watt of battery dropped by 25% (from 2010 to the present), should it also reflect, and continue to reduce the cost of space? How big is it?

It should be noted that compared with the cost reduction, the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells and components, which accounted for almost 99% of the national solar cell and module production, has only increased by 1.5 percentage points since 2010 (the Yellow Book data is 16% to 17.5%). ).

In response to this problem, Li Junfeng, director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation, made a speech at the award ceremony of the "First China Optoelectronic Architecture Theme Photo Contest" not long ago.

He believes that the Chinese government has given the greatest support to the photovoltaic industry for a long time. For example, on a global scale, only China has planned new PV installations that must be completed each year. After more than ten years of development, the space for improving the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation has indeed been very limited, but at the same time, a large number of centralized ground power stations built in the western part of China, there is a widespread phenomenon of shoddy.

In Li Junfeng's view, whether the cost of photovoltaic power generation can be equal to or even lower than that of thermal power is not important. “Clean energy should enjoy a clean price.” The key question is how do we improve the quality of photovoltaic power generation.

The aforementioned experts in Europe believe that the biggest problem facing China's PV is the lack of innovation. This includes not only the acceptance of multiple PV technology pathways, but also the innovative power to apply PV to more fields. "For example, in combination with automobiles and buildings, the photovoltaic industry has a broad prospect for development. But unfortunately, such cases are rare in China."

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