On May 17th, the "China 2049 Strategy" project results conference hosted by the China New Supply Economics 50 Forum was held in Shanghai. Jia Kang, Yao Yudong, Shao Yu, Wang Qing, Huang Jianhui, Wei Jianing, and even equality experts and scholars attended. The results of the conference will be the first to fully demonstrate the core views of the research results and their significance.
Shen Jianguang, member of the 50-member Forum of China's New Supply Economics, and Managing Director of Mizuho Securities Asia, attended the meeting and delivered a speech.
Shen Jianguang said: Basically, the growth rate of China's energy demand has slowed down a lot. This is the situation of per capita. It is 2050, maybe the level of our developed countries is not enough. This is more reasonable because China Now including technological advances, including the substantial improvement of our service industry, here, in general, the basic turning point, after 2030, the growth rate has slowed significantly.
The following is the full text of the speech:
Shen Jianguang: I am reporting on energy projects. Our research group includes the main senior researchers of the National Energy Research Institute's research institute, including the national customs including energy import and export. We are also a researcher of a relatively large research group. I think mainly because we are planning the demand and supply of China's energy, mainly looking at demand and supply, then some global development, as well as the status quo of China's energy import and export, and various energy agreements already signed. Starting from this foundation, we finally look at the final development plan of China Energy.
Two very important reports, the Energy Development Strategy of the State Council Development Research Center and the 2050 development strategy of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. The energy policy, including economic development, has changed a lot during this period. The State Council has just issued a strategic plan for energy development. By 2020, this is the guide and some basis for our research projects.
Our main focus is to use these as a basis to analyze the global macroeconomic situation, to do a model, to process a large amount of data, and to draw some conclusions from us. First, we can see that China’s energy demand forecast, we The forecast of GDP is relatively conservative on the relative basis, which is lower than the previous two research topics. Our low growth benchmark and high growth situation mainly depends on 2016 to 2020, and the next five-year forecast is 6.5. I think 6 It is likely to be getting bigger and bigger. The current situation is based on the consideration of low growth and benchmarking. Many of the previous two reports are based on high growth in China. This is an estimate of the economic slowdown in China’s new normal adjustment period. It is still insufficient. It is possible that the growth rate of GDP will reach medium-developed countries by 2050. Basically, the growth rate will return to about 3.5%. From the perspective of population, our aging society is getting more and more serious. This is Director Yao’s super-ageing. The concept of chemistry, this is the turning point of the population decline, in fact, it fell very quickly after the emergence in 2025.
Including our urbanization rate for the entire macro-national economy, the two demand for energy we see is actually declining, but our urbanization rate is rising, and this demand for energy is rising, with On the other hand, the structure of our people has undergone tremendous changes. The secondary industry has actually declined. The growth rate of the tertiary industry will be very fast. The National Bureau of Statistics, as a GDP, does not match much of electricity. The reason is that some of it is actually happening in fact, but has it changed so fast? This is a very important part of our energy demand forecast.
A lot of models have been made in these aspects, and the conclusions are basically that the growth rate of China's energy demand has slowed down greatly. This is the situation of per capita. It is 2050, and we may not be able to reach the level of developed countries until now. This is quite reasonable, because China now includes technological advancement, including the substantial improvement of our service industry. Here, in general, the basic turning point, after 2030, the growth rate is greatly slowed down, we report the largest The difference between the two reports and the demand forecast in the previous two reports is actually conservative. I think it may be that the era of high energy growth in China and the sharp increase in demand have passed. We have analyzed the five major energy industries, and it is obvious that they have slowly entered the turning point. The demand for industrial energy for agriculture has started to decline at the high point in 2030, and the total absolute quantity is also falling, but now the growth rate is sharp. Slowing down, the latter part is the transportation industry and the service industry. This energy demand is rising sharply. This energy consumption per unit of energy consumption is declining.
After making predictions on demand, look at the supply side, several major energy product varieties, and many inflection points have emerged. For example, coal has reached its peak in the past two years, and the energy turning point has come to be faster than we imagined. 2012 In the year we saw that the structure of China's energy supply is 70% for coal, 20% for oil and gas, and 10% for others. The consumption of coal for energy is drastically reduced. The space for oil and gas is very large. Finally, the main conclusion is that the rapid development of natural gas, such as shale gas, China’s reserves in the world, we see the US shale gas revolution, It has become one of the most important factors driving the growth of the US economy, but we see that China’s reserves are 50% higher than the United States. If many technical problems in China can be solved, it is also based on innovation and technological progress. In fact, natural gas is very large. .
We are looking at the main situation of energy import and export. We are now importing 50% of oil in the Middle East. The security issue in the Middle East is becoming more and more unpredictable, but we now have 50% of oil imports in the Middle East, including Russia, only 8.5%. That is why we now understand the importance of the “One Belt, One Road†strategy and sort out the import and export of natural gas. The natural gas is mainly Qatar and Australia, all of which rely on shipping. However, the safety of shipping is a big problem. The most recent energy cooperation is mainly from the pipeline, many from the Middle East and Central Asia, the Central Asian pipeline, the most important Turkmenistan, recently signed an agreement of 15 billion a year, this is our one 40% of the annual natural gas consumption. The completion of these pipelines is also a very important engineering base for the “Belt and Roadâ€. 40% of the energy consumption is imported from Turkmenistan, and imports from Russia and Myanmar are greatly improved. We will use the supply of natural gas in the future.
Finally, after such a consideration and many analyses, it is believed that the current situation is 7, 2, 1, 70% coal, 20% natural gas oil, 10% is regeneration, and our coal may only account for 55% in 2020, natural gas and oil will be large Rising, in 2049 may be 3, 3, 3, which is a dramatic change in China's energy landscape, coal accounted for only 33% of the oil and gas accounted for a higher proportion, as well as renewable energy, including nuclear power, non-fossil energy proportion will be 3, 3 , 3. Now the country's energy storage strategy, the most important efficiency priority, and security issues. Security is the most important consideration.
Finally, let’s talk about the importance of the “Belt and Roadâ€. The Middle East oil imports through the Straits of Malacca, General Secretary Xi visited Pakistan, signed a $46 billion agreement, which is the railway pipeline (including oil and gas pipelines). After this, Iran and the Middle East How oil and gas are transported through Pakistan, avoiding the dangers of shipping at sea. This is one of the considerations for safety planning for energy planning.
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