On July 19, 2013, inventory data for major steel warehouses in Shanghai were released. The rebar stock stood at 307,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week (July 12). Wire rod inventory was 93,600 tons, down by 0.01 million tons compared to the prior week, while disc Screw inventory increased by 0.05 million tons.
In addition, the Japan Network, including warehouses in Songjiang, reported a total of 358,600 tons of thread, a reduction of 0.111 million tons compared to the same period last week. Wire rod inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons, and plate screw inventory rose by 0.07 million tons.
Shanghai’s rebar inventory currently stands at 307,400 tons, a 0.36% drop from the previous week, with the decline rate narrowing significantly. Compared to the same period in 2012, it fell by 16,900 tons, or 11.67%, showing a slower decline than the previous week.
Nationally, rebar inventory in major cities reached 6,780,400 tons, down by 252,400 tons from the previous week—a 3.59% decrease. Year-on-year, it dropped by 362,900 tons, or 5.08%, indicating an acceleration in the decline.
Regionally, the inventory reductions varied: East China saw a drop of 47,100 tons, Central China 29,200 tons, South China 10,700 tons, Southwest China 22,300 tons, North China 34,400 tons, Northwest China 46,000 tons, and Northeast China 62,200 tons.
Major cities showed significant inventory changes this week. Dalian had the largest drop at 44,000 tons, followed by Hangzhou (25,800 tons), Lanzhou (25,000 tons), Harbin (23,000 tons), and Wuhan (19,200 tons).
This week, domestic rebar stocks decreased by 362,900 tons overall, with regional declines as follows: East China—60,400 tons, Central China—64,000 tons, South China—115,400 tons, Southwest China—235,300 tons, Northwest China—158,800 tons, and Northeast China—251,600 tons.
Despite slower downstream demand, market prices in Shanghai continued to rise due to low inventory levels. The price of HRB400 rebar (20mm) reached 3,500 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Meanwhile, spiral steel prices remained strong, with the 1401 contract closing at 3,692 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.98%.
Nationwide, construction steel prices also rose, with an average increase of 58 yuan/ton for HRB400 rebar (20mm) across 24 cities. Fuzhou and Lanzhou saw the most significant increases, rising by 140 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou gained 100 yuan/ton.
Looking ahead, despite weak demand, low inventory levels are expected to support prices. Steel mills may continue to raise prices, potentially triggering another market surge. While some regions may see a slowdown, others like South China, Central China, North China, Southwest China, and the Northwest are likely to experience stronger price growth.
With ongoing production cuts and export increases, inventories have fallen sharply, and supply-side constraints are becoming more apparent. Although demand remains sluggish, the current low inventory level is expected to provide continued support to prices. Domestic rebar prices may consolidate next week, but upward pressure is likely to persist.
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