On July 19, 2013, inventory data for major steel warehouses in the Shanghai region was released. The rebar stock stood at 307,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week (July 12, 2013). Wire rod inventory dropped by 0.01 million tons to 93,600 tons, while disc Screw stocks increased slightly by 0.05 million tons to 31,900 tons.
In addition, the Japan Network warehouse system, which includes brick warehouses in Songjiang, reported total thread inventory of 358,600 tons—a reduction of 0.111 million tons compared to the same period last week. Wire rod stocks were at 112,400 tons, down by 0.01 million tons, and plate screw inventory rose by 0.07 million tons to 45,200 tons.
Looking at the Shanghai rebar inventory trend, the current level of 307,400 tons represents a 0.36% weekly decline, which is a smaller drop than the previous week. Compared to the same period in 2012, the inventory decreased by 16,900 tons, or 11.67%, showing a narrowing year-on-year decline.
Nationally, rebar inventory across major cities reached 6,780,400 tons as of this week, a drop of 252,400 tons from the previous week—equivalent to a 3.59% decline. Year-over-year, the national rebar inventory fell by 362,900 tons, or 5.08%, indicating an accelerating downward trend.
Regionally, the inventory reductions varied: East China saw a drop of 47,100 tons, Central China 29,200 tons, South China 10,700 tons, Southwest China 22,300 tons, North China 34,400 tons, Northwest China 46,000 tons, and Northeast China 62,200 tons.
Major cities experienced significant inventory declines, with Dalian leading at 44,000 tons, followed by Hangzhou (25,800 tons), Lanzhou (25,000 tons), Harbin (23,000 tons), and Wuhan (19,200 tons).
Shanghai’s rebar prices continued to rise this week despite slower downstream demand. With low inventory levels supporting the market, prices remained strong. As of the latest report, HRB400 rebar (20mm) was priced at 3,500 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Spiral steel prices also showed strong momentum, with the 1401 contract closing at 3,692 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.98% from the prior week.
Nationwide, construction steel prices rose consistently, with an average increase of 58 yuan/ton for HRB400 rebar (20mm) across 24 cities. Fuzhou and Lanzhou saw the most significant price jumps, with increases of 140 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou recorded a 100 yuan/ton rise.
Looking ahead, although demand remains sluggish, the supply side has tightened significantly due to lower production and increased exports. According to the China Steel Association, daily crude steel output dropped by 3.84% to 1.694 million tons in early July, while national daily production fell by 4.5% to 2.083 million tons. This reduction in supply, combined with low inventory levels, is expected to continue supporting prices.
Despite the recent slowdown in demand, the tight supply situation suggests that rebar prices may consolidate next week, with potential for further upward movement if major mills adjust prices again. Overall, the market remains cautious but supportive of higher prices in the short term.
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