**Summary:**
This week, nickel prices experienced a decline followed by a strong rebound. On Friday afternoon, the nickel price increased by approximately $500/ton compared to last Friday’s closing level. Jinchuan Electrolytic Nickel raised its ex-factory price by 2,500 yuan/ton, while the spot nickel price in the market rose by about 2,300–2,400 yuan/ton. The short-term nickel price is expected to remain strong, with Lun Nickel likely to trade between 14,250 and 14,900 USD/ton.
**I. Analysis and Prediction of Nickel Trends**
1. **Review of Nickel Price Movement**
This week, nickel prices initially fell, reaching a low of $13,364/ton on Wednesday, before making a strong recovery. By Thursday, the price climbed close to $14,300/ton, and further surged to $14,500/ton by Friday afternoon—up about $500/ton from last Friday’s close. While the weekly change in nickel stock levels was minimal, other metals like copper also saw significant gains.
The overall metal market rose this week, driven primarily by two factors: improved Chinese economic data and a declining US dollar index. In July, China’s import and export figures were robust, and key indicators such as PPI and industrial output showed notable improvements, boosting expectations for industrial metals. Additionally, the continued drop in the US dollar index enhanced the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities, especially in the early part of the week.
2. **Lun Nickel Price Forecast**
Recent data indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of recovery. Moreover, the commodity market is gradually reducing the impact of the Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing. The current base metals market is operating in an optimistic environment, which is expected to support strong prices in the short term. This week’s price increase reflected a correction of previous pessimism, but its sustainability remains uncertain. Although China’s economic performance has improved, the strength and durability of this recovery are yet to be confirmed. At present, the extent of economic improvement is not sufficient to significantly alter the outlook for industrial metal demand, so investors should remain cautious during the upward trend.
From a technical perspective, most indicators suggest that nickel prices could continue to rise, with the next target range likely to be 14,250–14,900 USD/ton.
**II. Domestic Nickel Market**
1. **Electrolytic Nickel Market**
Jinchuan Group adjusted the ex-factory price of electrolytic nickel four times this week. It increased by 500 yuan/ton on Monday, dropped by 500 yuan/ton on Wednesday, and then rose by 1,000 and 1,500 yuan/ton on Thursday and Friday, respectively. After these adjustments, the ex-factory price of Jinchuan Electrolytic Nickel Sheet rose by 2,500 yuan/ton compared to last Friday.
In the Shanghai spot market, nickel prices increased by 2,300–2,400 yuan/ton this week. On Friday, the highest price was about 3,000 yuan/ton higher than on Wednesday. The market was relatively quiet at the beginning of the week, but activity picked up in the second half as prices rose. However, despite the sharp increase on Friday, traders remained cautious and showed limited willingness to chase the price. While inquiries were positive, actual purchases were limited.
2. **Domestic Ferro-Nickel Market**
Overall, the market released positive news this week, which contributed to the strong rise in LME nickel. The ferronickel price was also affected by this upward trend. Major steel mills have continuously increased their purchase prices, with plans to build up inventory. For example, Jiugang recently raised the latest purchase price of high-nickel iron to 970 yuan/nickel (including tax). Other steel mills have followed suit. Despite the bullish sentiment, manufacturers with available supplies were reluctant to sell, preferring to wait for further price increases.
The mainstream factory price of 6–8% nickel pig iron this week was 930–940 yuan/nickel, averaging 935 yuan/nickel. The 4–6% nickel pig iron averaged 940 yuan/nickel, with a range of 930–950 yuan/nickel. The ex-factory price of 1.5–2.0% low-nickel pig iron was 2,500–2,550 yuan/ton, while high-nickel pig iron (10–14% nickel) was expected to see continued price increases, potentially approaching 1,000 yuan/nickel.
3. **Domestic Nickel Ore Market**
Nickel ore prices remained stable this week, with small fluctuations. As downstream ferronickel prices rose, the nickel ore market also saw increased activity. Market sentiment warmed up, with more buying inquiries and reduced inventories compared to last week. As of Friday, the price of 0.9–1.1% nickel ore ranged from 260–280 yuan/wet tons, while 1.4–1.6% grade nickel ore was priced between 160–240 yuan/wet tons. The 1.8–1.9% grade nickel ore was valued at 340–390 yuan/nickel.
However, some miners expressed hesitation, stating they would wait for clearer market signals before making decisions. They plan to supply when the market shows real improvement. It is expected that the nickel ore market will likely see further price increases in the coming week.
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