The recent huge market for the entire metal market is also a surprise for investors in the right direction. The madness of rising prices is falling again. Analysts are looking for reasons everywhere and can only remind investors to pay attention to market risks. The falling source of copper and aluminum power and the falling target are worth studying. The authors of the copper-aluminum falling power are the same or relatively close in terms of the big ones, and the small ones will result in different declines and goals. From a large perspective, the recent rapid rise in metal prices is mainly due to the large expectations of international and domestic investors for inflation. The international crude oil prices continued to rise and the prices of many commodity commodities led by the rising prices of many bulk commodities have caused investors to increase their expectations of inflation. Large-scale funds increase the value of funds for value preservation. In the commodity futures market, precious metals and fundamentals that show fundamental trends are rising. The metal market has increased its holdings of long positions on a large scale, pushing up the period's high prices. For example, in a relatively short period of time, the size of US copper positions increased rapidly from more than 70,000 hands to more than 100,000 hands, and the fund’s net long positions increased to 28,000 hands, which was a significant match with commercial hedging. The London aluminum market increased from 350,000 hands to 440,000 hands in the last month, according to foreign brokers expect large funds in the London aluminum market holdings of up to 50,000 long positions. The fund used the highly intensified or declining bullish characteristics of metal inventory to drive the spot premium to continue to rise to force short positions. The spot premium for copper in London recently reached a huge range of more than US$150, and the spot premium of London Aluminum even rose dramatically. The spot price of copper is relatively high, reaching a record high of 32,500 yuan. The high price rise is linked with the reluctance of spot dealers to relocate. The subject matter of spot-shrunking is close to good. The surface of the market shows the price increase caused by the shortage of spot supply. It is still caused by speculation at a high market level. In the international market, large-scale and CTA funds and domestic arbitrage buying have become multi-centered forces in the copper market. Interested in funds raised against Chinese counter-institutions spurring the rise in copper prices is extremely reasonable. The fund's speculative buying power is highly concentrated and lacks universality. The investors’ follow-up has actually provided the main driving force for the recent high-speed decline in copper prices. The domestic cross-market arbitrage does not mean that some market analysts predict a large number of losses in the London market. Because some of the larger-scale arbitrage funds come from an international metal giant, they have the ability to organize in the early stage. Sources of goods entered the London copper inventory register warehouse. While large-scale arbitrage buying in China is still holding on to the same time, the fall in London's copper from the high position will certainly increase its risk for domestic buying, because domestic copper has a rising or falling limit, showing a decline in copper in London. Naturally, we need to be short-selling in the outer market to control the risk of domestic copper down. Even if some analysts analyze the fact that a large number of short positions in the outer market copper hold only domestic long positions, it will surely be large again when the recent London copper falls. Entering the market to continue to protect its long position in the country, from this perspective, the recent sharp decline in London's copper prices must also have the initiative to sell from the domestic profitability. When the domestic copper market hits a high of 30,000 yuan at a high speed, we can clearly see the lack of market short-selling power. The consensus of the market bullish sentiment has driven the price of the period to rise by flying, and the market has repeatedly told investors that when trading sentiment is good It will bring the direction of reaction, and this time the skyrocketing and rapid decline of metal prices will once again prove how powerful the market's ability to regulate itself. Therefore, from a large aspect, the recent sharp decline in metal prices is a function of the highly concentrated speculative forces and the external performance of market sentiment. The trend of prices in recent days cannot be judged by simple fundamental analysis methods, and the direct technical analysis method may be better. The chart has clearly reflected the market's trading trends and trading sentiment. The long-term high metal market has actually created a situation in which most investors maintain a highly sensitive investment psychology. From a small perspective, the weakness of domestic copper spot prices has already shown negative signals in the near term, but the degree of attention in the futures market has not kept pace with it soon. The domestic copper spot continued to climb more than 31,000 yuan and showed a reduction in consumption, and copper companies were reluctant to continue buying at high levels. The lack of market volume in the market reflected a decline in the affordability of the domestic market. Traders are actively letting the premium rise, and spot prices are falling faster. Shanghai's spot price in the morning was reported at 31,500 yuan in the morning on Tuesday, compared with 30,700 yuan in the afternoon. The spot price fully reflects the shift in the psychology of spot traders. At this time, the more flexible investors in the futures market may profit from long positions. On the surface, the sudden drop in domestic copper prices comes from the market's growing psychological expectations for the appreciation of China's currency, and the internal impetus is that the weakness of the domestic spot market causes the bullishness of the futures market to be more alert. Many investors in the market are aware of the increase in global copper production capacity and the soaring of processing costs this year. However, in the face of the strong control of the fund, the pressure of production increase cannot have a significant impact on the market. We can pay attention to the recent decline in copper prices. The increase in production to the market began to increase. The copper mines in Kazakhstan, Chile and Zambia are substantially increasing their production and planning to continue to increase production capacity. The increase in supply caused by the increase in global copper production directly brought about a continuous increase in processing costs for copper concentrates. From the beginning of this year, China’s processing costs for imported copper concentrates from the international market have climbed from US$25/tonne to 25 cents/lb/ton. $120/ton 120 cents/lb. Our refined copper imports actually decreased during the middle of the year, but at the same time, consumption was also declining. Moreover, the import scale of our copper concentrates has kept growing since mid-year, if it was not a stock trader's hoarding and the market expected domestically. The rise in consumer demand has increased bullish speculative psychology, and domestic copper’s upside momentum will not be so great, nor will it cause the recent plunge. From the perspective of small areas, the domestic and international aluminum market price falls, and on the surface, the continuous increase in aluminum inventories in London caused a rapid decline in the price. In fact, after the speculative fund has a large-scale long position, it has failed to take advantage of the spot market. Water hit short positions in the recent contract, and the consumer market showed signs of weakening aluminum processing usage that caused the concentration of funds to appear. From the recent high-speed increase in trading volume, the fund has a greater degree of control over its long position risk. The consumption of aluminum in the United States recently fell below market expectations may cause the alert of the London aluminum market funds, rallies to achieve higher performance in recent days than the copper market, in the recent London copper surge hit a new high when London aluminum performance is extremely high in the shock The market deserves the attention of investors. The significant increase in domestic aluminum stocks after the National Day in Shanghai has brought about a significant increase in the market's role in the buying of futures markets. From the perspective of the different degree of speculation in the international copper and aluminum market and the characteristics of the recent transaction size, the fund has effectively controlled its trading risk in the London aluminum market. The recent decline has not been significant, and London copper has come from various trading levels selling pressure. It still appears to be large, and the bearishness of the technical charts has increased speculation, and the price of the period in the short-term is highly speculative. At this time, do not subjectively predict its price drop, only from the chart point of view in the medium-term target at 2500 US dollars. At the same time, we also noticed that the copper and aluminum spreads in London are rapidly approaching. From the perspective of copper and aluminum cross-variety arbitrage, London Aluminium fell below US$1,650, and London Copper fell by more than US$2,500. Domestic copper fell more than aluminum, domestic aluminum is more clearly supported at 15,200 yuan, investors can consider cross-species trading in January next year, the contract may have a more stable profit. (Tianma Futures)