Construction Securities (10.25): Copper, Aluminum

The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆ The period price is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Following the sharp decline in LME copper prices in March last week, this week saw a wide range of volatility, ending at $2817/tonne and down $23/tonne from last Friday. US$2,855-2,750/t, the weekly line is a cross star with upper and lower leads. Affected by the price of copper, LME March aluminum also showed a turbulent trend, compared to a closing price of 1749.5 US dollars / ton, compared with last Friday fell 20 US dollars / ton, fluctuations in the range of 177.5 to 1730 US dollars / ton, the weekly line is the small Yin line. This week, the LME copper stocks continued to show a downward trend, with the ending stocks at 8.2975 million tons, down 4900 tons from the previous week. This week, LME's aluminum stocks have re-emerged significantly. Weekend stocks are 715.025 million tons, an increase of 13.34 million from last Friday. After experiencing last week's crash, the short-term price of copper began to fluctuate. At the same time, due to the strike of the Spanish copper mine and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, copper prices were supported this week. However, from the position report released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on the 19th, we can see that the fund’s current position is a net of 13,000 contracts, which is a significant reduction from the nearly 30,000 hands announced on the 12th. The fact that the fund's net long positions have changed so much in a week's time shows that the fund is already adjusting its positions. The changes in fund positions in the later period should be worth our attention. Judging from the current trend, copper and aluminum prices have relatively explored the strong support area in the short-term after experiencing the previous week's plunge, and have experienced a one-step rebound after reaching strong support areas. However, this rebound we believe currently It can only be seen as a relaying rebound of decline. The trend of copper and aluminum prices in the latter period is still not optimistic. Ma Hongqing: LME copper prices continued to maintain consolidation during Friday's trading and the volume of transactions shrank. The technical upswing has ended with 5 waves. Finding the short selling point will be the best choice for the next operation. The correlation between the copper price and the US dollar will start to weaken, and the correlation with the stock index will increase, indicating that the impact of economic data on the futures price will become more important. Shanghai CU CU501 is expected to remain within the range of 26,500/27,000 on Mondays. It is recommended that investors short-selling near 27000. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London, October 22 news: Due to no new changes in the fundamentals, the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal futures prices mixed up and down, but the margins are relatively small. Copper futures, zinc futures and nickel futures closed lower on Friday evening composite trading, and were pressured by high oil prices. An analyst told Reuters: “High energy prices are putting pressure on metal prices, which look at US$60 a barrel on crude oil prices. Metal prices are unlikely to strengthen. "The London-based International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) crude oil futures rose to above the $51 a barrel on Friday and test for record highs. December crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose to a record of $55.39. New high, slightly lower later. "The market is quite dull, and the real factor is the price of oil," said one LME trader. The analyst said that high oil prices will lead to a decline in manufacturing and other economic indicators for the first two weeks of November. Dragged down metal market sentiment. He said, “after the release of economic data in November, the market may have an unexpected trend.” “The market will not collapse, but it will fall to a critical level of support. Copper may fall to $2,550. It may fall to 1,680. "Without the release of new economic data and the flat performance of the foreign exchange market, the benchmark price of copper fell slightly for three months. The three-month aluminum futures, which were affected by the recent copper trend, closed flat today. A spokesman for AtlanticCopper, Spain, said that the strike lasting several days has ended. Analysts believe that if the US economic data released next week, strong growth, will promote the LME base metal prices higher, otherwise it will continue to maintain a narrow swing next week. Three-month copper closed at 2,804 US dollars per tonne, lower than yesterday's 2,825. A trader said: "During the period of copper triggered some stop loss orders near 2,800 US dollars, but the market stabilized at the moving average of 2,780 at 100 days, confirming the interval. At the bottom of the article, “Investors have ignored the information that Atlantic Copper’s smelter workers in Spain have cancelled the 17-day strike. Another trader said: “The suspension of the refinery did not have a big impact on the market. We already have these supply surfaces. The problem was accustomed to as usual. “The support under 2,800 increased, while the selling pressure was heavy above 2,840/2,850. Three-month aluminum regained earlier losses, which was 1 US dollar higher than the final settlement, and it was reported at US$1,750. COMEX Copper Market Report NEW YORK, Oct. 22 (Reuters) - Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) ended the day modestly lower on Friday, but after the price fell sharply due to earlier profit-takings, buyers took a dip in the late stages. December copper fell 80 points to close at 130.55 cents. It was 128 cents lower and 132.10 cents higher throughout the day. Copper prices fell in the morning as market participants took a short-term profit after two consecutive days of strong gains and triggered stop-loss orders, causing prices to fall further. When small speculators realized that there was no more stop-loss orders in the next market, other Market participants pushed into the bargain-hunting market following news from Lido’s fundamentals. Analysts said that despite the fact that global copper market demand is greater than supply, the market is still concerned that rising oil prices will inhibit global industrial development and eventually lead to lower demand for copper. At the same time, the current price is in the vicinity of the integer mark of 130 cents, so the oscillation of the market at this point will continue for some time. Traders said that speculators are profitable, and accumulating a certain amount of profit is one of the reasons for the oscillations. December copper futures are expected to support 128 cents, while the upward resistance is 132.10 cents. In other respects, from January to September, copper production at the Escondida copper mine in Chile reached 892,895 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. A spokesman for AtlanticCopper, Spain, said that the strike lasting several days has ended.