Off-season suppression of market fluctuations in steel prices

Although it is currently in the off-season demand for the steel industry, steel prices continued to rise rapidly due to cost support and the increased willingness of some steel trading companies to store in the winter, as well as the demand for end-user restocking before the Spring Festival. However, due to the continuous increase in steel prices, the rate is too large, the domestic steel market needs adjustment. It is expected that the overall domestic steel market will adjust slightly in the short term.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2013.1.14-1.18) domestic steel market price will fluctuate, the long products market will adjust steadily or slightly, and the plate market price will rise steadily or slightly. Lange Steel's price index is expected to fluctuate around 153.5. The average price of steel will be around 3,990 yuan, with an average volatility of about 20 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 166.5, with a slight adjustment of around 0.6; Lange The steel sheet index is expected to fluctuate around 137.4 points, a slight increase of about 0.8 points.

From the market research of the Lange Steel Information Research Center, it is expected that the prices of domestic long products will be adjusted steadily in this week (2013.1.14-1.18), and the plate market price will increase steadily or slightly; raw material market prices will rise and fall each other. At present, iron ore market prices will rise steadily by 20 yuan, coke market prices will rise steadily by 10 yuan, scrap market prices will be slightly at 30 yuan, billet market prices will rise by 20-50 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market continued to increase this week. Week 2 of 2013 (2013.1.7-1.11) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 153.2 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.79%, and a decrease of 9.06% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 167.1 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.89%, a decrease of 12.67% compared with the same period last year; LGMI sheet price index was 136.6 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.79%, a decrease of 3.17% over the same period last year.

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 specifications in some regions monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the market price of major steel products continued to increase during the second week of 2013 (2013.1.7-1.11), compared with last week. The rising varieties increased significantly, the flat varieties decreased significantly, and the falling varieties increased slightly. Among them, 41 varieties rose, which was 9 kinds more than last week; 2 types were flat and 10 kinds decreased compared with the previous week; 1 item fell, increasing 1 item from last week. The domestic steel and iron raw materials market prices have risen sharply. The iron ore market price has increased by 40-50 yuan, the coke market price has increased by 30-40 yuan, the scrap market price has increased by 50 yuan, and the billet market price has increased by 30-70 yuan.

2. The national steel society stocks continued to rise this week. At present, the nation's steel stocks have rebounded for 3 weeks. The rise in building materials stocks has slowed down significantly, and the rate of rise in sheet stocks has slowed down. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on January 11th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 12.5764 million tons, an increase of 134,600 tons from the previous week. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod social inventory is 1,198,500 tons, up 0.62% from last week; rebar, social inventories is 5,070,000 tons, up 1.42% over the previous week; Panluo social inventory is 352,700 tons, Decreased by 0.11% from the previous week; social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,122,800 tons, up 1.75% from last week; cold-rolled coils, social inventories were 15,785,500 tons, 0.28% down from last week; plate stocks The amount was 1,133,900 tons, an increase of 0.53% from the previous week.

3. This week, the steel market turmoil adjusted the short-term broken position of the rebar market in the second week of 2013 (2013.1.7-1.11). This week, the weekly closing price fell by 65 points compared with last week. It finally fell in the fifth week after four weeks of consecutive increases. From the price point of view, the price gradually fell into a tangled relationship and there is no possibility of a new high. This week, the main contract was 1,281,000 contracts, an increase of 72,422 contracts. Although it suffered a substantial lightening on Friday, the overall situation for the week saw a gradual increase in positions, but the increase narrowed.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

SERC: Strict implementation of power-down measures for backward production capacity The website of the China Electricity Regulatory Commission was announced on the 8th, and the Electricity Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening Supervision on Power-saving and Emission-reduction of Electric Power and Doing a Good Job of Eliminating Outdated Production Capacity." It is required to issue a power cut notice for the backward production line included in the annual bulletin list. The power supply enterprise shall strictly implement the decision of power cuts and power cuts made by the government and its authorized departments according to law, and impose restrictions on power cuts for related enterprises as required. The notice requires power supply companies to implement stop-and-limits power decisions in accordance with the law. At the same time, the company shall pursue the responsibility of suspending or limiting the supply of electricity in violation of the regulations or disguised power supply companies in violation of regulations; strengthen the supervision and inspection of the implementation of the policy of shutting down small thermal power units, and promptly write off. Its power business licenses; strengthen the supervision and inspection of the implementation of product energy consumption limit standards by enterprises; timely publish the list of companies that implement punitive tariffs; and increase the supervision and inspection of power companies' implementation of differential power tariffs, punitive tariffs, and other policies. To the public; on-site inspection found that the power supply companies did not follow the provisions of the implementation of stop power restrictions, according to the law investigation and verification and accountability.

Four ministries jointly issued energy-saving emission reduction targets The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released on the 9th, the Ministry of Industry and the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance has developed the "action plan for the industry to combat climate change (2012-2020)." According to the plan, by 2015, the national greenhouse gas emission control target will be fully implemented, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of industrial added value will fall by more than 21% from 2010. Steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, electronics The CO2 emissions of industrial added value in key industries, such as information, have fallen by 18%, 18%, 18%, 17%, 18%, 22%, 20%, 20%, and 18%, respectively, compared to 2010. CO2 emissions from major industrial units The volume has steadily declined, and industrial carbon productivity has greatly increased. Industrial processes Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, hexafluoride* and other greenhouse gas emissions are effectively controlled. The industrial structure has been further optimized, and strategic emerging industries have developed rapidly. A number of low-carbon industrial demonstration parks and low-carbon industrial demonstration enterprises have been established, and a number of low-carbon technologies and products with significant emission reduction potential have been promoted. The measurement and monitoring system for greenhouse gas emission from key energy-using enterprises was basically established, and the industrial mechanisms and policies for addressing climate change were further improved. By 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of industrial added value will decrease by about 50% from 2005, and an industrial system characterized by low carbon emissions will basically be formed.

December 2012 ***** increased 454.3 billion yuan M2 increased 13.8%

According to the statistics of the Central Bank, at the end of 2012, the balance of broad money (M2) was 97.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the end of November and 0.2 percentage point higher than the end of the previous year; the narrow money (M1) balance was 30.87 trillion yuan. Yuan, which was a 6.5% year-on-year increase, was 1.0 percentage point higher than the end of November and 1.4 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year; the balance of currency (M0) in circulation was 5.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. In the whole year, net cash injections totaled 391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 225.1 billion yuan. The number of ***** in the year increased by 8.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 732 billion yuan year-on-year, and foreign currency ** increased by 145.1 billion dollars. The year's deposits increased by 10.81 trillion yuan, while foreign currency deposits increased by 131.4 billion US dollars. In December, the weighted average interest rate for the interbank borrowing market was 2.61%, and the weighted average interest rate for pledged bond repurchases was 2.62%.

In 2012, China's foreign trade import and export volume increased by 6.26% to US$ 3866.76 billion.

According to statistics from the Customs, in 2012, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 3866.76 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. Among them, exports were 2,049.83 billion U.S. dollars, up 7.9%; imports were 1,817.83 billion U.S. dollars, up 4.3%; trade surpluses were 231.1 billion U.S. dollars, up 48.1%.

In 2012, the overall growth rate of the import and export of China’s goods trade declined, and the growth rate of imports and exports in 2011 decreased by 16.3 percentage points. From the perspective of the whole year's progress, the growth rate of imports and exports showed a trend of slowing down and stabilizing, which was reflected in the quarter-on-quarter increase in the scale of imports and exports. The growth rate picked up after the bottoming out in the third quarter. In the first to fourth quarter of last year, China’s total value of imports and exports was US$ 859.46 billion, US$ 979.69 billion, US$ 102.7 billion, and US$ 1024.91 billion, respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were 7.3%, 8.5%, 3%, and 6.3% respectively.

In December 2012, consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2012, the national consumer price level rose by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, the city rose 2.5%, rural areas rose 2.5%; food prices rose 4.2%, non-food prices rose 1.7%; consumer goods prices rose 2.5%, service prices rose 2.5%. In 2012, the overall level of consumer prices in the country rose by 2.6% from the previous year. In December, the nation’s overall consumer price index rose by 0.8% month-on-month. Among them, cities rose 0.8%, rural areas rose 0.9%; food prices rose 2.4%, non-food prices were flat (ups and downs 0); consumer goods prices rose 1.1%, service prices were flat.

In December 2012, the national industrial producer’s factory price decreased by 1.9% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2012, the national producer prices of industrial producers fell by 1.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.4% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. In 2012, the ex-factory price of industrial producers fell by 1.7% from the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.8% from the previous year. In the ex-factory price of industrial producers, the price of means of production fell by 2.7% year-on-year, of which, the price of extractive industry fell by 6.1%, the price of raw material industry decreased by 2.4%, and the price of processing industry decreased by 2.5%. The price of living materials rose by 0.5% year-on-year, of which, food prices rose by 0.9%, clothing prices rose by 1.3%, general commodity prices rose by 0.8%, and consumer durables prices dropped by 0.8%. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the price of ferrous materials decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, that of chemical raw materials decreased by 3.7%, that of nonferrous metal materials and wires, and that of fuel and power declined by 2.5%, and that of textile raw materials decreased by 1.5%. The price of agricultural and sideline products rose by 1.6%.

Raw material supply:

Coke Export Tariffs and Quotas Are Cancelled Both in the "2013 Catalogue of Export License Management Goods" announced by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs in recent days, the coke is removed from the "Export Quota License Management Goods," and appears in "In the implementation of export license management of goods". The above policy means that China’s quota system for coke export management for 10 years has been officially cancelled in 2013 and replaced by an export license system. On December 17, 2012, the “Circular on Tariff Implementation Plan for 2013” ​​issued by the Customs Tariff Committee of the State Council removed coke from the “Export Commodity Tariff Schedule”. This also means that the 40% coke export duties imposed since August 20, 2008 have been cancelled since January 1, 2013.

Hebei Province will close 1,100 mines before the end of 2015. The Hebei Provincial Government Office issued the “Hebei Metallic Non-metal Mine Reorganization Work Program” recently. It will severely crack down on and resolutely ban illegal mining operations such as unlicensed mining, and shut down according to law without safe production. Conditions and various types of mines, especially small mines, that damage ecology and pollute the environment, by the end of 2015, more than 1,100 metal non-metal mines (including tailings) had been closed in Hebei Province. The plan outlines the timetable for rectification: By the end of 2013, illegal activities such as unlicensed mining have been effectively stopped; the phenomenon of illegally occupying river courses, land and mountain yards for storing slag, tailings, and dry separation waste has been eradicated; the underground mining production scale is smaller each year 30,000 tons of small-scale iron ore with an open-pit mining production scale of less than 50,000 tons per year and rock and gold mines with a production scale of less than 150,000 tons per year are inconsistent with the minimum mining scale of the corresponding minerals stipulated by the national or local governments and cannot be achieved through technological upgrading. In the above-mentioned non-metallic metal mines with production scale, open-pit mines with a safety distance of less than 300 meters, ultra-poor magnetite mines whose tailings disposal and environmental protection do not meet the requirements are closed in accordance with the law; by the end of 2014, the deadlines for technical renovations and rectifications are still closed according to law. Failing to meet the above production scale and related regulations, failing to meet industrial policies, low safety guarantee capabilities, wasting mineral resources, severely polluting the environment, and concentrators without fixed or legal sources of ore; by the end of 2015, Hebei Province, the metal More than 1,100 non-metallic mines (including tailings) were closed.

In December 2012, the iron ore import surged. According to customs statistics, China imported 70.94 million tons of iron ore in December, an increase of 5.16 million tons from November, an increase of 10.65% year-on-year; a total of iron ore imports from January to December 2012 743.55 million tons of stone, an increase of 8.4%; from December to December the cumulative amount of imported iron ore was 95.605 billion US dollars, the average price of imported iron ore for the year was 128.58 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 35.37 US dollars / ton over the same period of last year, a decrease of 21.57% .

Industry News:

China Steel Association: It is estimated that last year's crude steel output was 720 million tons. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first 11 months of 2012, the cumulative output of crude steel nationwide was 660.13 million tons, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year. For example, according to the previous 11 months The average production level is estimated to be about 720 million tons of crude steel production in 2012. The growth rate of 2.9% for the first 11 months of crude steel production dropped by 6.9 percentage points from the same period of last year, setting a new low in recent years. China Steel Group pointed out that in the first 11 months of last year, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the national steel industry was 564.6 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, of which black smelting and rolling industry investment was 455.6 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, although the increase was more than the previous year. A sharp drop, but the total investment is still a record high, it is expected to add more than 50 million tons of steel production capacity.

China Iron and Steel Association: 80 large and medium-sized steel enterprises earned 3.2 billion yuan in November last year, which is expected to break even last year. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, after October 2012, the profits of 80 large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises monitored by CISA in November The total amount was 3.281 billion yuan, but the cumulative loss in the previous November was still 1.97 billion yuan. Steel Association data show that in November 2012, 80 large and medium-sized iron and steel companies sales revenue 301.6 billion yuan, the number of loss-making enterprises also reduced from 21 in October to 20, the loss of the loss of the company reached 2.383 billion yuan.

China Steel Association: Crude Steel Production Decreases for Three Consecutive Periods According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output in the country in late December is estimated to be 1.907 million tons, down by 0.53% compared with the previous period. In December, the average daily output of crude steel in the country has dropped for three consecutive days. According to the data of China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in December is estimated to have decreased compared with November, and the accumulated total of 58.845 million tons of crude steel in December. It is estimated that the annual crude steel production in 2012 will be 718.97 million tons, an increase of 5.2% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate will slow down by 3.7 percentage points from 2011.

December 2012 Steel exports decline slightly According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 4.85 million tons of steel in December, 280,000 tons less than in November, a year-on-year increase of 30%; in January-December 2012, a total of 55.73 million tons of steel were exported. , a year-on-year increase of 14%; from January to December, the cumulative amount of steel exports was US$51.48 billion, and the average export price of steel products for the year was US$923.8/ton, a decrease of US$124.7/ton or 11.9% from last year.

In December, China imported 1.04 million tons of steel, which was 20,000 tons less than that in November, a year-on-year drop of 13%. From January to December of 2012, a total of 13.66 million tons of steel was imported, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; the cumulative amount of imported steel from January to December was 17.805 billion. In the US dollar, the average price of imported steel products for the year was US$1303.4/ton, which was US$81.3/ton lower than last year, a decrease of 5.87%.

Chengdu intends to integrate 7 steel enterprises to establish Sichuan Metallurgy Holding Group Recently, Chengdu Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the “Twelfth Five-year Development Plan for Chengdu Metallurgical Industry”, and Chengdu will further encourage the merger of metallurgical enterprises during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Restructuring, with Chengdu Metallurgical Experimental Factory Co., Ltd. as the leader, will integrate seven small iron and steel enterprises with steel production below 1 million tons in 2009 into Sichuan Metallurgical Holding Group Co., Ltd. The plan also clearly stated that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, Chengdu Metallurgical Industry will phase out backward steelmaking capacity of 4.4 million tons and backward steel rolling capacity of 1.38 million tons, involving a total of 41 enterprises; while the concentration of the first two steel companies will have to be More than 90%. Among them, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group Chengdu Steel Vanadium Co., Ltd. to reach more than 20 billion yuan; Sichuan Metallurgical Holdings Group Co., Ltd. will reach 10 billion yuan.

Baosteel's net profit rose by 39.98% in 2012 operating profit decreased by 59% year-on-year

According to the performance report released by Baosteel Co., Ltd., the company's net profit in 2012 reached 10.305 billion yuan, up 39.98%, but operating profit fell by 5.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 59%, mainly due to the further intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand of steel, steel prices Continuing low operations and relatively strong iron ore price and other unfavorable factors have affected the level of gross profit of products. As for the increase in net profit, Baosteel explained that it was related to the sale of related assets and equity income of the stainless steel and special steel business divisions of 9.58 billion yuan.

The previous period, the thread ** fell on the 11th, the main contract fell 2.17%

In the previous period, the main 1305 rebar contract was opened at RMB 4,022/ton in the morning, and then the price showed a sharp and rapid downward trend throughout the day. It was RMB 3,918/ton for the whole day and RMB 4,029/ton for the whole day, which was close to RMB 3,925/ton. On the trading day (10th), the settlement price fell by RMB 87/t, and the deal volume reached 3,186,202. The open interest amounted to 1,280,732 lots, a decrease of 150,960 contracts.

Downstream demand:

In the first 11 months of 2012, there was a gap between the year-on-year growth rate of major products in the Chinese construction machinery industry. According to statistics from the China Communications Association, in November 2012, the total output value of the construction machinery industry in China was 42.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.82%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.66. From January to November, the total output value of the construction machinery industry in China reached 545,336 million yuan, a cumulative decrease of 0.43% year-on-year. In November 2012, the national construction machinery industry completed the export delivery value of 2.768 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.32%, and a growth of 22.90% from the previous period. From January to November, the total construction export value of the national construction machinery industry was 31.929 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.86%. Among them, the export of marine equipment manufacturing equipment maintained a relatively high growth rate of 38.96%. In November 2012, there was a gap between the growth rates of the five major products of the construction machinery industry in the year-on-year period, among which, the loader experienced a negative growth of 26.70%, while the growth rate of the compaction machinery was significantly higher than the other industries reached 28.45%. In January-November, the total number of excavators fell 34.80% year-on-year, while the accumulated growth rate of concrete machinery reached 12.19% year-on-year.