Hot or cold coil market prices may have small consolidation in late

Li Zhong Shuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd. predicts that in the second half of January, the market price of hot and cold coils will be consolidating. Since New Year's Day, the market price of hot and cold coils in the country has risen sharply, market transactions have become increasingly active, and sales of traders have increased, which is optimistic for the market outlook. However, some operators still maintain a cautious attitude.

Li Zhongshuang conducted a follow-up investigation on the operation of the recent HRC market. From December 26 last year to January 10, 2013, the price of hot-rolled structural steel heavy materials in Shanghai had a price increase of RMB 180/ton, and the SPHC rolling material price was 100%. Yuan/ton increase. The reasons for the price increase: At the end of December last year, steel mills raised the factory prices in January, and the prices of iron ore, coke and billets increased, driving the rebar prices up, and the spot prices of steel products were expected to be strong; the financial pressure at the beginning of the year was eased. The market is bullish. The factory began picking goods, and traders are reluctant to sell. As a result, the spot price has soared. It is expected that the price will be stable next week, mainly because the short-term increase will be too large and the profits will be higher. The highest price in the first month of January was the highest in the month, and the market price was consolidating in the middle and late.

Li Zhongshuang’s follow-up research on the cold plate market's running status shows that in the past week, the market price of cold rolled steel in Shanghai has risen by RMB 100/ton, and the prices of cold rolling and hot rolling have been similar, mainly due to the price increase by steel mills, and the financial pressure at the beginning of the month has eased. It is expected that the cold plate market price may undergo a consolidation period in the middle to late.

After the holiday season, the hot and cold plate market prices rebounded strongly. Some industry analysts believe that one of the reasons is that iron ore, coke and other steel raw materials market prices continue to rise, especially iron ore prices soaring, reaching soaring levels. Since the beginning of December last year, the 62% iron ore price index has increased from US$115-118/tonne to US$155-159/tonne, which has increased by US$40/tonne. After the New Year’s Day 2013, the imported iron ore has enjoyed strong growth. On January 5, 61.5% of Australia's PB fines crush prices were reported at US$155.5/ton, which was a US$88/ton lower than September 6, 2012, a 76.7% increase.

In addition, coke, scrap and other raw materials market prices have been rising, the secondary metallurgical coke price in the Hebei market from 1600 yuan / ton, up to the current 1680 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton. The rise in the prices of these two raw materials alone will increase the cost of steel manufacturing by about RMB 450/t. The steel mills are facing huge cost pressures and have to continue to increase steel prices. After the New Year's Day, Baosteel's factory prices for hot-rolled and general-cooled products in February were increased by RMB 160/t and RMB 120/t (excluding tax), respectively. Zhou large steel mills will also substantially increase the factory price. The ex-factory price of hot and cold plates in steel mills has been raised, and the purchase costs of traders have increased, driving up the spot market prices.

Some traders analyzed that the cold and hot plate spot resources on the market are currently tight, the steel trading companies generally have insufficient resources, and the sales pressure is not high. Some sellers even hold orders and do not ship, “awareness of price” More obvious. According to surveys by professional agencies, in January 2013, the major domestic steel mills reported 8.667 million tons of hot-rolled coil products, which was a decrease of 0.35 million tons or 3.33% from December; the volume of cold-rolled coil plans for key enterprises in China was 178 Ten thousand tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons over December, an increase of 0.3%.

So, why should the market price of hot and cold plates be consolidated in the middle and late? Some operators believe that if the price is pulled up sharply before the Spring Festival, it will inevitably overdraw the downstream terminal demand after the holiday. After the Spring Festival, it will not be possible to reproduce the rising market. On the contrary, it may fluctuate. If the price of hot and cold plates in the middle and late markets is consolidating, it will be favorable for the rise of the market after the Spring Festival, even in March and April, when the steel market enters the peak season.

In addition, with the approaching Spring Festival, the return of a large number of migrant workers, the production and operation of downstream end-users will be affected. With the arrival of the new year, the contradiction of funding shortages will be highlighted, and the release of demand will be suppressed; again, the last few weeks of the week. On the trading day, the turbulent decline in the market conditions, traders ** psychological increase, does not rule out moderate price reductions, will promote the market price of hot and cold plate consolidation, to be consolidation, is expected after the Spring Festival hot and cold plate market price will be Continue to rise.