US oil imports will be less and less

The United States is one of the world’s major oil producers and consumers. Although it also has oil-producing areas such as the Gulf of Mexico, for a long time, the United States’ oil imports have not been underestimated. According to statistics, as early as 2000, the United States’ foreign dependence on crude oil reached 63.66%. The National Petroleum Council (NPC) has also issued a report entitled "The Cruel Reality" for this purpose, saying that "the global energy resources are declining... The continued expansion of oil and natural gas production will only increase the risk... It is a challenge to predict how to meet the huge energy demand in the future. Energy independence is not realistic for the United States in the foreseeable future. The United States must curb the growth in energy demand."

However, this situation seems to have changed. Recently, the NPC released a report again, saying that with the remarkable progress in technology and the abundant oil and gas resources discovered in succession, especially the development of large quantities of unconventional natural gas in North America, the US’s energy demand outlook is no longer bleak.

Slower oil demand growth

As a major oil-consuming country, the oil demand of the United States has consistently topped the world since the last century. After World War II, as the growth of US crude oil production slowed down and consumption increased, the United States gradually became a net importer of crude oil.

According to the United States' "Petroleum Basic Data Manual," the United States imported net crude oil by 2017 million tons in 1950; it jumped to 51.45 million tons in 1960; in 1970, US crude oil production reached 530 million tons, but its net imports still rose. To 65.59 million tons. The United States’ reliance on imported oil is evident.

The constant increase in oil imports is inextricably linked to the increasing oil consumption in the United States. The rapid development of the U.S. economy has caused its demand for oil to rise. After entering the 21st century, the United States’ oil consumption is even more "singing along the way" and the import volume is also rising. According to statistics, by the year 2003, US oil imports had reached 610 million tons, and net imports had reached 570 million tons.

However, the demand for oil in the United States did not continue to hit a higher level, but began to decline after 2006. According to the "BP World Energy Statistics," the amount of crude oil imported by the United States in 2009 has dropped to 44.28 million tons, and the net import volume is 44.06 million tons, accounting for 23.28% of the global total.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also claimed in a report in May this year that the US’s dependence on oil (including crude oil and refined products) was 49.3% in 2010, and it has dropped to 50% for the first time since 1997. International "warning line" below. EIA said that this trend of US dependence on overseas oil slowdown may continue into the next decade.

In addition, according to EIA data, in November 2010, US oil imports fell by 1.5% year-on-year in 2009; and in the last week of 2010, US oil products even achieved a net export of 479,000 barrels per day, which is since 2001.11 Since the beginning of the month, the United States has achieved net oil exports for the first time. Since then, in the second week of March and the second week of June, the United States once again achieved a net export of petroleum products, which was 264,000 barrels per day and 16,000 barrels per day.

In the United States, the decline in crude oil imports was again the largest decline in imports from the Middle East in the Persian Gulf region. According to statistics, since 1991, the proportion of crude oil imports from the Middle East by the United States has gradually declined. Although in 2001, the United States imported crude oil from the Middle East to a record high of 2.264 million barrels per day, and its share in total imports reached 28.6%, the total amount of crude oil imported from the Middle East and its share of total imports are now presented. Downward trend. In 2010, the ratio dropped to 18.5%, which was 10.1% lower than in 2001.

In March of this year, US President Barack Obama once delivered a speech saying that in the next ten years or so, the United States will reduce its oil imports by 1/3 in order to increase the independence of the United States’ energy. In fact, the United States’ own oil and gas production and energy consumption structure are quietly changing. Due to the strong growth of offshore oil and shale gas production, the supply capacity of the United States' native oil and gas has been strengthened; the significant increase in energy efficiency and the alternative role of new energy development in oil will all reduce the dependence of U.S. energy on oil. At the consumer end, the United States has a mature economic structure and energy consumption has reached a peak. Coupled with higher energy efficiency standards, the United States’ energy demand will continue to decline.

Diversification of import channels

In addition to the declining import volume, the US oil import channels have gradually begun to diversify. The distribution of U.S. overseas oil import channels is also continuously optimized.

In fact, the United States does not rely heavily on oil in the Persian Gulf region of the Middle East. Since the 1960s, the United States’ share of oil exports in the Middle East has been lower than in Europe and Japan. For a long time, the United States has imported oil from a wide range of sources, covering North America, South America, Africa, the Middle East and Europe. In recent years, the oil supply in the United States has been shrinking toward its home and its periphery.

According to statistics, from the first oil crisis in 1973 to the year 2000, the United States imported crude oil from two regions of the Middle East and North America with complementary complementarities. When the share of crude oil imported from the Middle East in the Middle East accounted for 36.6% of the historical peak in 1977, the proportion in North America was just 6.9%, the lowest point in history; in 1985, the US imported crude oil from the Persian Gulf as a share of total imports. When the proportion reached the historical lowest point of 7.6%, the proportion in North America was just 37% of the highest point in history. In 2010, crude oil imported from North America accounted for 34% of total imports, while the Middle East accounted for only 18.5%. This fully reflects the diversity of U.S. overseas crude oil imports, and its multiple import channels for crude oil can complement each other. When one of the main import channels is blocked due to various factors, other import channels can be quickly supplemented.

America has always been an important source of U.S. oil imports. From 1973 to 2010, the United States imported only crude oil from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador, the six countries in the Americas, which accounted for 39.1% of its total crude oil imports; in 2010, this proportion was even greater. It is as much as 52.5%. The American continent has undoubtedly become the United States’ premier overseas oil supply.

Among them, North America is the first choice in all parts of the Americas. Canada and Mexico not only have abundant oil resources, but also form a North American Free Trade Zone with the United States. For the United States, the convenience of North American oil import conditions is unmatched by other regions, including Canada. Canada not only has abundant petroleum resources, but also strategic replacement of unconventional oil such as oil sands. In recent years, Canadian oil production has continued to increase, and the number of U.S. oil exports and U.S. imports has also increased.

In South America, although the largest oil-producing and exporting country Venezuela has caused a certain degree of negative impact on the oil exports to the United States due to the Chavez government’s policy toward the United States, the rise of oil production in Brazil has been supplemented to some extent. . Brazil now exports a large amount of ethanol to the United States in addition to oil. In addition, Nigeria and Angola, which are located in the west of Africa, have gradually become the main suppliers of US overseas oil.

At present, the United States has formed a pattern of North American oil imports as the core, South America, Africa and the Middle East as complementary. It is understood that nearly 70% of the oil imports from the United States come from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, mainly in the Americas and West Africa, and both sides of the Atlantic Ocean have become the absolute main force of the United States’ overseas oil supply.