Judging from the performance of the steel market in the near future, the slow start of demand for Golden 9 and the start of preparation for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday have not brought significant dynamism to the market transactions. At present, the quality of the busy season this year is insufficient. In the case of weak demand, the increase in cost is not. Get positive feedback on steel prices.
Statistics show that domestic crude steel output in August was 58.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. The average daily output was 1.895 million tons, which was a drop of 18,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.93% from the previous month. From January to August, the crude steel output was 469.28 million tons, an increase of 10.6% over the same period of last year. In August, pig iron production was 53.946 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. From January to August, the output of steel products was 433.827 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. August steel output was 77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. From January to August, the steel output was 591.919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%.
In terms of imports and exports, August steel exports amounted to 4.19 million tons, which is a decrease of 250,000 tons from July, an increase of 49.6% compared with the same period of last year. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 32.94 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 6.5%; in August, China imported 1.35 million tons of steel, an increase of 110,000 tons compared with July, an increase of 2.96% over the same period of last year. From January to August, imports totaled 10.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.
Steel Steel Network was informed that in August during the period of centralized repairs, the daily output of crude steel has declined, and the decline in steel production can generally be attributed to the possibility of two aspects. One is the decline in orders, and the other is the limited capacity. However, the main reason for the decline in production in August this year was due to the limited scale of production capacity due to centralized overhaul.
If the decline in orders results in a decline in output, it is generally accompanied by an increase in the finished product inventory of production companies. However, from the data reflected in the mid-year report of the China Steel Association, there was no significant backlog of increase in the internal inventory of steel enterprises during the month, so the hypothesis of decline in production caused by the decline in orders did not hold. At the same time, the estimated value of small and medium-sized steel mills in the Dangshi Xunbao was excluded. The actual quantifiable daily output of key enterprises in August was 163.00, 163.34, and 1.5898 million tons respectively, which was at a moderately low level in the whole year. The detailed investigation of sub-companies is mainly due to the increase in the number of passive annual inspections during the period, and the sample data accounts for a large proportion of the total output and is representative. It can be seen that the limited maintenance of production capacity caused by centralized inspections is the main reason for the decline in production in August.
Imports of iron ore increased. In August, the import volume of iron ore increased, which was out of line with the steel output. The main reason is that domestic mines have recently been affected by security inspections. As two mine accidents occurred in late July and early August, the government strengthened the rectification of local mines in the month. Mines in Qian'an, Qianxi, and Zunhua were ordered to suspend production. In August, the beneficiation enterprises (sample companies) in Hebei Province started operating rates. 84.9%, down 3.2% from the previous month. At present, there are still some incomplete licenses, especially those without a mining permit, or the certificate is not allowed to be resumed as it expires. In addition to remediation of unlicensed mines, the local government also requires all mines, especially underground mines, to carry out mine reinforcement operations.
According to the visit to Steel Steel and Steel, it is understood that due to the above factors, the output of these mines will be reduced by about 30%. It is expected that the renovation will last for 2-3 months. The decrease in supply will cause steel companies to order additional overseas mines, resulting in an increase in ore prices.
Judgment for the post-industry operation:
1. The export is still operating at high level in the short term: the export data in August is in line with our previous judgment. The drop in domestic and international steel production costs in the third quarter has prompted domestic steel products to maintain their competitive advantage in the international market, and the export volume has not changed much. We believe that exports in September may still be operating at a high level, but the amount of supply demand increase is limited.
2. Cost-push game demand is weak: short-term domestic mine output is under pressure, and the end of the mining cost curve is more steeply deformed. The onset of demand in the peak season should bring about an upward acceleration of the marginal cost of iron ore, which in turn will promote the rebound of steel prices.
Statistics show that domestic crude steel output in August was 58.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. The average daily output was 1.895 million tons, which was a drop of 18,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.93% from the previous month. From January to August, the crude steel output was 469.28 million tons, an increase of 10.6% over the same period of last year. In August, pig iron production was 53.946 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. From January to August, the output of steel products was 433.827 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. August steel output was 77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. From January to August, the steel output was 591.919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%.
In terms of imports and exports, August steel exports amounted to 4.19 million tons, which is a decrease of 250,000 tons from July, an increase of 49.6% compared with the same period of last year. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 32.94 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 6.5%; in August, China imported 1.35 million tons of steel, an increase of 110,000 tons compared with July, an increase of 2.96% over the same period of last year. From January to August, imports totaled 10.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.
Steel Steel Network was informed that in August during the period of centralized repairs, the daily output of crude steel has declined, and the decline in steel production can generally be attributed to the possibility of two aspects. One is the decline in orders, and the other is the limited capacity. However, the main reason for the decline in production in August this year was due to the limited scale of production capacity due to centralized overhaul.
If the decline in orders results in a decline in output, it is generally accompanied by an increase in the finished product inventory of production companies. However, from the data reflected in the mid-year report of the China Steel Association, there was no significant backlog of increase in the internal inventory of steel enterprises during the month, so the hypothesis of decline in production caused by the decline in orders did not hold. At the same time, the estimated value of small and medium-sized steel mills in the Dangshi Xunbao was excluded. The actual quantifiable daily output of key enterprises in August was 163.00, 163.34, and 1.5898 million tons respectively, which was at a moderately low level in the whole year. The detailed investigation of sub-companies is mainly due to the increase in the number of passive annual inspections during the period, and the sample data accounts for a large proportion of the total output and is representative. It can be seen that the limited maintenance of production capacity caused by centralized inspections is the main reason for the decline in production in August.
Imports of iron ore increased. In August, the import volume of iron ore increased, which was out of line with the steel output. The main reason is that domestic mines have recently been affected by security inspections. As two mine accidents occurred in late July and early August, the government strengthened the rectification of local mines in the month. Mines in Qian'an, Qianxi, and Zunhua were ordered to suspend production. In August, the beneficiation enterprises (sample companies) in Hebei Province started operating rates. 84.9%, down 3.2% from the previous month. At present, there are still some incomplete licenses, especially those without a mining permit, or the certificate is not allowed to be resumed as it expires. In addition to remediation of unlicensed mines, the local government also requires all mines, especially underground mines, to carry out mine reinforcement operations.
According to the visit to Steel Steel and Steel, it is understood that due to the above factors, the output of these mines will be reduced by about 30%. It is expected that the renovation will last for 2-3 months. The decrease in supply will cause steel companies to order additional overseas mines, resulting in an increase in ore prices.
Judgment for the post-industry operation:
1. The export is still operating at high level in the short term: the export data in August is in line with our previous judgment. The drop in domestic and international steel production costs in the third quarter has prompted domestic steel products to maintain their competitive advantage in the international market, and the export volume has not changed much. We believe that exports in September may still be operating at a high level, but the amount of supply demand increase is limited.
2. Cost-push game demand is weak: short-term domestic mine output is under pressure, and the end of the mining cost curve is more steeply deformed. The onset of demand in the peak season should bring about an upward acceleration of the marginal cost of iron ore, which in turn will promote the rebound of steel prices.
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