With the global economy picking up, the supply and demand of phosphate fertilizers will be further restored. Developing countries will become the main driving force for the supply and consumption of phosphate fertilizers. In developed countries, due to the adoption of effective phosphorus nutrient management measures, the amount of organic phosphate fertilizers and phosphorus in crops are greatly increased. Utilizing efficiency, this will make the growth of phosphate fertilizer consumption in these countries slow or remain at a certain level. It is expected that from 2010 to 2014, the global surplus of phosphate fertilizer will increase from 2 million tons to 3 million tons. This is the news released at the 4th International Conference on the Dynamic Process of Phosphorus in Soil-Plant Continuum held by the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) Secretary General Luc Meane on September 20.
It is understood that from 1962 to 2007, the global consumption of phosphate fertilizer increased by nearly 3.5 times, from 11 million tons (purchased, the same below) to 38.6 million tons. Phosphate consumption in China, India, Brazil, the United States, and the EU accounted for 71% of the world's total phosphate consumption. In the world's consumption of phosphate fertilizers, grain consumption accounts for 46%, and the development of the phosphate fertilizer industry has made an important contribution to world food production. From 1973 to 2007, the market share of ammonium phosphate products increased by 47% from 14%. At the same time, the recycling rate of organic phosphorus nutrients (such as livestock and poultry manure) is increasing, which makes the amount of inorganic phosphorus nutrients including phosphorus fertilizers is decreasing.
Luke Miner said that global phosphate supply and demand are affected by many factors, such as the investment environment, project duration, resource taxes and tariffs, energy prices, and freight rates. The financial crisis has seriously affected the world demand for phosphate fertilizers, resulting in a global reduction in phosphate fertilizer consumption by 11% in 2008. With the global economic situation picking up, IFA expects that the world's phosphate fertilizer demand is expected to grow to 44 million tons in 2014. In 2030, the world phosphate fertilizer demand is expected to reach 53 million tons. Among them, East Asia, South Asia, North America and Latin America will continue to be the major consumer regions. China's consumption of phosphate fertilizer will increase steadily and is expected to reach around 13 million tons.
He also stressed that in the coming period of time, global phosphate fertilizer production and consumption will maintain simultaneous growth. The engine for growth of phosphate fertilizers will shift to developing countries, and China may become the world's largest producer of phosphate fertilizers. From 1995 to 2010, China's new ammonium phosphate production capacity accounted for 90% of the world. In 2008, China had ranked first in the world's phosphorus resource output, accounting for 33% of the world's phosphorus supply, while the United States, Brazil, and *** were 18%, 7%, and 7%, respectively. In terms of diammonium phosphate, global supply of DAP will increase from 31 million tons in 2010 to 37 million tons in 2014, while demand will also increase from 30 million tons to 34 million tons in kind. In the near term, there will be approximately 40 sets of phosphoric acid plants in operation around the world. If all are put into production, global ammonium phosphate production capacity by 2014 will increase by 23% from 2009 to 39 million tons.
Luke Miner said that it is very important to increase the efficiency of phosphorus utilization, which will affect the demand for phosphate fertilizers in the future. For example, the supply of organic fertilizer phosphorus in French farmland has accounted for 50%, while the supply of animal manure phosphorus in the United States also accounts for 30%, which will further reduce the consumption of mineral phosphate fertilizer. However, at the same time, it should be noted that there are still many areas in the world where phosphorus deficiency exists, such as in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. In the future, developing countries will become the main driver of global phosphate fertilizer supply.
Based on the comprehensive analysis, IFA expects that the global phosphorus surplus will be 2 million tons in 2010, while the surplus in 2014 will reach 3 million tons.