Today's point of view
Today, the prices of major domestic steel products have been falling, and there is an accelerating trend. The overall situation is obviously poor, and the market mentality is even more depressed. From the news point of view, multiple factors are still dominant. First, from the perspective of supply, the recent production is still basically high, and the supply reduction is limited. Second, the demand side is already poor. Whether it is the construction industry or even the home appliances, automobiles and other industries have gradually entered the traditional off-season, and affected by the weather. This also led to the inflection point of the inventory, which intensified its upward trend; thirdly, the macroscopic understanding of the impact of the continuous fermentation of Sino-US trade war on the financial market. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent, and the fundamentals are empty, so that steel prices remain weak and it is recommended to operate with caution.
Macro hotspot
1. [Domestic commodity futures closed at the same time, black is weak] Manganese silicon fell 2%, coke fell 1.5%, eggs, coking coal, Zheng cotton, Shanghai lead, cotton yarn, Zheng coal, soybean meal, thread, sugar, hot rolls Shanghai nickel, iron ore, Shanghai silver, Shanghai aluminum, corn, etc. closed down. Asphalt, Shanghai zinc, glass, Shanghai tin, rubber, plastics, Zheng alcohol, crude oil, Shanghai copper, apple, Shanghai gold, etc. closed up.
2, [A shares staged V-word rebound] The Shanghai index rose in the afternoon and fell to 1.5% in the morning; the Shenzhen Component Index approached the red, and fell 2.5% in early trading. The GEM rose by 0.7%.
3. [Onshore and offshore RMB both rose, Pan Gongsheng and Yi Gang successively voiced the renminbi.] The offshore renminbi rose again against the US dollar in the afternoon, regaining the 6.7 mark, which was nearly 400 points higher than the daily low. Onshore, the RMB regained the 6.68 mark against the US dollar, up 400 points from the intraday low.
4, [Securities Daily Front Page: A-share plunge is an irrational overreaction] As a firm investor in the A-share market, we must understand that the A-share market's sharp fall at this time is irrational and is an over-situation of the international economic situation. reaction. For the A-share market, we have a stable and stable macroeconomic operation basis, the market environment is gradually purified, the overall market valuation has reached a historical low, the performance of listed companies has risen steadily, and investors' returns have been rising. The scale of foreign investment in the market has been increasing. All of these are sufficient to support the steady operation of A shares.
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The price of the national billet market has risen and fallen. Tangshan steel billet dropped 10 yuan / ton, today Shandong steel billet rose 10 yuan / ton, other regions temporarily stabilized. Today, the steel market is cautiously adjusted, the overall turnover of steel billets is general, and the prices of downstream finished products are stable and small. Today, the straight billet transactions are smooth, and the stocks of stocks are 3690-3700 yuan/ton, and some low-cost shipments are acceptable. The high price is slowing down. The steel futures oscillated and the spot market was cautious, and the individual varieties of finished products were active, and the overall transaction was weak.
Domestic mines: Some market prices in the main domestic production areas have been temporarily stabilized. Specifically, the North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory is 635-645 yuan / ton, the west of the 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 620-630 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 645-655 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 630-640 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 560 yuan / ton;
Imported mines: The price of imported mineral traders on the 3rd was stable compared with yesterday, and some varieties in Tangshan area were slightly lowered by RMB 5/ton. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong PB powder is 460-465 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of PB in Tangshan area is 465 yuan/ton. In early trading, the Dalian Iron 1809 contract fluctuated and fell. The spot market of imported mines was also sluggish. Some traders gave feedback. In the morning, they were mostly exploratory inquiry, and there were not many real orders. Steel mills are still mostly on the sidelines. In the afternoon, the transaction was slightly heavy. The performance of the whole day was warmer than yesterday, and the transaction price was stable. Part of the transaction is as follows: Caofeidian Port: Super special powder 280, PB block 625; Jingtang Port: PB powder 455, Mike powder 450, super special powder 282; Qingdao port: Luo powder 315, mixed powder 347; Rizhao port: super special Powder 280, Macan powder 445, Jinbuba powder 405, printing ball 860, PB powder 448/458; Yanqiao Port: Newman sieve rear block 645.
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices fell slightly. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,122 yuan / ton, down 18 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, of which Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanchang and Guiyang fell significantly, with a drop of more than 50 yuan / ton, the rest of the price Both fell slightly by 10-30 yuan/ton, and prices in the northeastern region and parts of northern China were stable. Today's snails are not doing well, and the terminal wait-and-see mood is strong. After some markets are loose, the transaction is still acceptable. Due to sluggish demand, the overall market is not well shipped. Considering that the environmental protection is coming to an end, the supply of resources in some regions will increase. Mainly based on transactions. At present, the off-season effect begins to appear, the end-users' sentiment is biased, the purchasing enthusiasm is not strong, and the daily market transactions are difficult to guarantee. On the whole, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices will continue to decline in the short term.
Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide fell slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,316 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4,257. Yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market is weak and volatile, the market bearish sentiment is aggravated, and merchants' offers are slightly lower. Recently, market demand has been relatively sluggish. With the arrival of new resources, market inventory pressure has increased, and most of the merchants are mainly shipping, and the actual transaction price has gradually loosened. However, considering the cost factor, merchants are not willing to sell too low. In addition, today's billet market price fell by 10 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,600 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will be weaker tomorrow.
Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price fell slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4382 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's overall market quotation is slightly lower, and the market outlook for the market is mostly bearish. Recently, market resources have arrived, but demand is relatively weak, and inventory pressure has increased. The operation of the merchants is still mainly based on shipments, and the market price is still in a downward trend in the short term. In addition, today's billet market price fell by 10 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,600 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will be weaker tomorrow.
Cold rolled coil: Today's national cold rolling prices fell slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,715 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price fell 5 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4670 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4700 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4550 yuan / ton. In terms of market: prices in Central South and North China were slightly lowered by RMB 10-20/ton, while prices in other markets were stable. From the point of view of understanding, the southwestern region has experienced heavy rains today, affecting shipments, and Panzhihua Steel Resources concentrated in the goods last week, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. On the other hand, July is the traditional low season of the household appliance industry. The terminal demand situation has dropped significantly from last month. The market inventories have increased. The merchants have kept a wait-and-see attitude on the market outlook. On the whole, it is expected that the cold rolling prices will fluctuate downward tomorrow.
Section steel: Today's domestic steel market price is weak and consolidation. Tangshan's early corners rose 10-20 yuan / ton, the word is stable, and the morning turnover is weak. There was a discount on the price of the intraday slot, but it did not reverse the weakness of the transaction. Merchants wait and see, the overall transaction shrinks compared to yesterday. In the afternoon, the price was stable, and there was a small amount of low-cost resources. The demand did not significantly affect the business mentality, and the market was cautious. The price of East China's profiled materials was weakly consolidating. After the spot fell, the stabilizing mentality was stronger. However, due to the slight weakening trend of futures and steel billets, the actual transaction volume in the market was mostly loose and favorable. The offer of South China profiled goods continued to hold steady, but due to poor shipments, the merchants indicated that the actual transaction had a discount of around RMB 20/ton. At present, the overall inventory of the market has increased, and merchants have a strong willingness to ship. On the whole, the market operation at this stage tends to be fast shipping, and the spot price of tomorrow is expected to be dominated by the weakening of the electronic disk and billet.
Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices have fallen slightly today. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4363 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm national average price 5067 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day Falling 4 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 405mm national average price 5243 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. In terms of pipe factory, Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida ex-factory prices were all lowered by RMB 20/ton, and Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory hot-rolling price was RMB 4,750/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the market transactions are general, the market atmosphere is short in the near future, traders are more conservative in operation, and inventory levels are kept at a low level. In terms of seamless pipes, market transactions were not good, low-cost resources gradually flowed into the market, and traders gradually began to cut prices. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and run weaker tomorrow.
Futures: Today's domestic black commodity futures are weak and volatile, with shrinking transactions and large outflows of funds. Specifically: the spot market, HRB40020mm national prices fell slightly, Shanghai offer 4060 yuan / ton, Nanjing offer 4120 yuan / ton. The iron ore general index fell, currently at $64.45. On the news front, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 82.58%, down 0.58% from the previous period and down 7.55% year-on-year; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 81.10% down 0.19%, down 5.66% year-on-year, and steel mill profitability was 92.31%. It was flat, and the daily average iron and steel output was 2,268,800 tons, down 0.51 million tons, down 158,300 tons. Next week, four blast furnaces are expected to resume production. There is no plan to add blast furnace maintenance, and the daily average iron production capacity is 13,200 tons. Due to the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with the current accumulation of inventory, and the resumption of steel mills, it is likely to fluctuate in the short term. Taking the snail as an example, the daily line receives the cross-yang line, and the intraday wide-ranging oscillating operation. In the end, the small pull-back station is on the 3750 area, which is mainly around the 3700-3800 range. The above suggestions are recommended, and the wait-and-see is the main.
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