August Oil and Chemical Industry Economic Operation Report

At present, the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries has shown a steady and rapid trend. In August, the output of major products maintained rapid growth; the market supply and demand were basically stable, and prices generally rose steadily; import growth slowed down and exports maintained a better situation; industry investment continued to grow steadily. However, the pressure of rising raw material prices and rising corporate costs continues to increase; the superposition effect of various macro-control policies in the first half of the year is gradually emerging; the recovery of the world economy continues to slow, and the industry's exports are facing a complicated situation.

——The economic trend has stabilized. Since the third quarter, the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries has shown a steady and rapid trend. According to statistics, as of the end of August, there were 36,063 enterprises above designated size in the industry. The total output value reached 727.83 billion yuan this month, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a 2% increase from the previous period, accounting for 12.24% of the country's total industrial output value. Among them, the output value of new products was 37.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%. From January to August, the total output value of the industry was 5.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.5% year-on-year. Among them, the output value of new products was 301.96 billion yuan, an increase of 45.6% year-on-year.

——Main product output maintained rapid growth In August, the output of major domestic petrochemical products continued to maintain a relatively rapid growth trend, especially for crude oil, ethylene and other products, which continued to grow rapidly this year. The output of 78 (species) key petrochemical and related products tracked by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation showed that there were 60 (species) and 77% of the products with year-on-year growth and leveling, and a decrease of 1 species from the previous month; there were 18 declines ( Species) increased by 1 from the previous month. Among them, products with an increase of more than 20% accounted for 26.9%, which was the same as that of the previous month. Products with an increase of more than 30% accounted for 14.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month.

——The overall price trend of the industry remained stable. The balance between production and sales was basically balanced. In August, the prices of the petroleum and chemical industries were generally stable. The increase was basically the same as that of the previous month. The industry price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the oil and chemical industry price index for the month was 109.8 (previous year price was 100), which was an increase of 0.1 point from the previous month. In August, the sales rate of products in the petroleum and chemical industries was 99.3%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the convergence of production and sales remained smooth.

——Reduction in import growth rate and rapid growth in exports In July, the increase in imports of crude oil fell sharply, resulting in a noticeable narrowing of the increase in import and export trade, especially in import trade. Customs data showed that in July, the total import and export trade volume of the petroleum and chemical industries was 37.84 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, which represented the lowest increase during the year and dropped 23% from the previous month. Among them, total import volume was 25.156 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year, an increase of 33.2 percentage points from the previous month; total exports were 12.684 billion U.S. dollars, a record year-on-year increase of 43.2%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month; the trade deficit was 124.72. Billion US dollars, down 10% year-on-year. From January to July, the total import and export volume of the industry was US$257.798 billion, an increase of 53.5% over the same period last year.

—— Demand growth slowed down markedly. The data on foreign dependence on oil shows that, in July, the apparent consumption of a few petrochemical products such as ethylene and naphtha continued to grow rapidly, and the appearance of energy and other major chemical products Consumption growth slowed significantly, and some even negative growth, indicating that the strong market demand in the first half showed signs of abating. In July, China’s apparent oil consumption amounted to 36,298,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, the first decline in more than one year, a month-on-month decrease of 3.883 million tons; the apparent consumption of natural gas was 8.29 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, a year-on-year increase. 7.9%; The apparent consumption of ethylene was 1.415 million tons, an increase of 46.2% year-on-year. In addition, in July, apparent consumption increased by 22.1% year-on-year, caustic soda increased by 4.5%, soda ash decreased by 6.7%, methanol decreased by 4.1%, synthetic resin decreased by 0.3%, synthetic fiber monomer increased by 16.4%, and chemical fertilizer decreased by 4.8%. The tires dropped by a significant 15.4%, and the growth rate of most key products slowed down or declined.

—— Investment maintains stable growth Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the oil and chemical industry has generally accelerated. From January to August, the total investment of the industry was 688.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and the growth rate was 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the chemical industry grew by 17%, which was 2.9 percentage points slower than the period from January to July. New projects continue to decline. From January to August, 6,322 newly-started projects in the petroleum and chemical industries decreased by 3.6% year-on-year.

At present, the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries depends on three aspects: First, the internal trend of industrial economic growth; Second, the adjustment of macroeconomic policies; Third, the prospects for world economic recovery. The intrinsic trend of industrial economic growth is the main aspect, which determines the basic trend of economic growth; macroeconomic policy adjustment and the prospect of world economic recovery will accelerate or slow the pace of economic growth. According to the analysis, the growth rate of the industry economy will gradually slow down in the second half of the year, but it will remain stable and fast. It is expected that the output value of the third quarter will increase by 23.5%. According to the current trend of economic operation, the total output value of the industry in the third quarter is expected to be about 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.5% over the same period of last year, with an increase of about 21.3% in September. The output value of the chemical industry in the third quarter was approximately 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 24%, of which the increase was approximately 23.3% in September. The growth in the consumption of major products will slow. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of domestic crude oil in the third quarter will be approximately 108 million tons, an increase of 5%; the apparent consumption of refined oil will be approximately 60 million tons, an increase of approximately 1.7%; the apparent consumption of ethylene will be approximately 3.64 million tons, an increase of 18.1%. The apparent consumption of synthetic resin was about 17 million tons, an increase of about 1.6%; the apparent consumption of chemical fertilizer was about 15 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%.

In the fourth quarter, the overall petrochemical market will continue to be dominated by stable operations, but some local market adjustments may increase. Judging from the current economic environment and market demand at home and abroad, in the fourth quarter, the price level of domestic oil and chemical industries will continue to narrow, and the petrochemical market will continue its current stable operation. In the fourth quarter, with the increase of exports and the arrival of light reserves, the fertilizer market will continue to improve, but there will be no fundamental change in the downturn. In particular, the nitrogen fertilizer industry will continue its current weak trend; the inorganic chemical raw material market will stabilize. For the main, the trend may continue to rise steadily; the market for organic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials may present a volatile market. Among them, the synthetic fiber monomer market will continue to maintain its current good momentum, and the fluctuation range of the synthetic resin and synthetic rubber market may further increase.