6.1%, September CPI year-on-year increase is basically in line with previous expectations, slightly lower than 6.5% in July this year and 6.2% in August, showing a second consecutive month of decline. Some analysts believe that as the hovering factor is decreasing, with the harvest of autumn harvest, the price increase of grain and vegetable will tend to slow down. In the future, the monthly CPI will fall back to 5%, which is a controllable category.
Indeed, from the classification data, the increase in food prices is still the biggest driver of the CPI. The price of pork, which has received much attention, rose by 43.5% year-on-year, affecting the overall price level by about 1.24 percentage points. However, continued tracking of pork prices found that pork prices continued to fall in the third week after September, and pig prices have remained stable since July, corresponding to a continuous decline in year-on-year growth. Jiang Chao, chief macro researcher of Guotai Junan, said that inflation will drop significantly after October. “The demand factor has a great impact on inflation. At present, not only the economic growth rate has dropped, but also the decline in industrial price PPI and CPI non-food prices is very clear.â€
In addition, while the global economy may “double dip†and the European debt crisis continued to ferment, the commodity prices in the international market plummeted in September, and contributed slightly to the decline of domestic CPI, but for the pressure of imported inflation. In fact, it still cannot be taken lightly.
Experts from all sides generally believe that the future CPI will show a slow downward trend, and it is expected to be controlled at around 5% throughout the year.
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