Recently, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) released the latest global semiconductor forecast values.
According to their forecasts, the global semiconductor market increased to 478 billion USD in 2018 and increased to 490 billion USD in 2019. In 2018, it increased by 15.9% compared with the same period of last year. The above figures reflect the main areas: Memory (memory) growth rate of 33.2%, followed by Discretes (separation device) of 11.7%, and finally optoelectronic parts of 11.2%. In 2018, all regions are forecast to grow as expected.
According to their estimates, 2019 is expected to increase by 2.6% compared to 2018, with optoelectronic parts contributing the most, followed by inductors and discrete devices.
Reduce confidence in the August forecast?
In August of this year, WSTS released their forecasts for the semiconductor industry. They said that the world semiconductor market in 2018 was 477.01 billion US dollars, up 15.7% from 2017's 412.22 billion. Its growth rate dropped by 5.9 percentage points from 21.6% in 2017; the market size in 2019 is expected to be 502.04 billion US dollars, up 5.2% year-on-year, down 10.5 percentage points from 2018.
They said that the growth rate in 2018 was mainly from memory, analog circuits, discrete devices and optoelectronic devices. Among them, the memory decreased by 61.5% year-on-year to 30.5% due to the adjustment of product structure and the elimination of some low-end and small-capacity products. At the same time, the market demand for memory increased. Some manufacturers are interested in controlling production capacity and hoarding, and jointly promote the global shortage of goods, forming a situation in the memory market. In 2018, the price of NAND Flash has been falling.
Analog circuits increased by 12.0% in 2018, among which advanced systems and power management analog circuits help the industry grow and develop; automotive electronics and automotive applications make analog circuits grow rapidly; communication and consumer applications also make analog ICs the largest users (data Converter, mixed information IC, etc.).
In 2018, discrete devices increased by 11.5% year-on-year, optoelectronic devices increased by 9.4% year-on-year, and sensors increased by 8.3% year-on-year (half from 2017).
WSTS's valuation of the global semiconductor industry development in 2018 is also adjusted from low to high, which is adjusted according to the growth rate of the market. From the beginning of 2018, the estimated revenue of 437.27 billion US dollars (up 7.0%) is raised to the income of 46.34 billion US dollars. It increased by 12.4% year-on-year and the growth rate increased by 5.4 percentage points. At the end of August 2018, it increased to 477.01 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.3 percentage points.
WSTS's global semiconductor market development adjustment in 2019 also went from low to high. In June 2018, the valuation increased to 4.4%, and the scale is expected to be US$48.72 billion. It is still a record high; it is now up to 5.0% year-on-year. The growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points. In the product category, the sales of memory reached 169.156 billion US dollars. After a continuous high growth of two years, it slowed down, up 4.6% year-on-year (to stabilize the development period), but still the first product category, The role of the wind vane, thermometer and ballast stone.
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