The photovoltaic industry is one of the few industries in China that can simultaneously participate in international competition and gain a leading edge in industrialization.
At the technical level, China is a global leader and accelerates its layout on cutting-edge technologies. In terms of corporate strength, five companies in all sectors of China have entered the top ten in the world; in terms of industrial layout, China has built in nearly 20 countries or regions around the world. The factory exports its products to nearly 200 regions around the world.
Especially in the industrial scale, China has been the world's number one for many years since 2007. In 2018, polysilicon production exceeded 250,000 tons, an increase of more than 3.3% year-on-year, of which polysilicon production in the first half of the year was 143,000 tons (approximately 24%); wafer production was 109.2GW, up 19.1% year-on-year, of which wafer production exceeded 50GW in the first half of the year. (Growth about 39%); battery production was 87.2%, an increase of about 21.1% year-on-year, of which the first half of the battery production was about 39GW (an increase of about 22%).
In the application side, in 2018, China's new PV installed capacity exceeded 43GW, down 18% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 170GW; of which, the centralized type was about 23GW, which was 31% synchronously, and distributed about 20GW, up 5% year-on-year.
In 2018, the development of China's photovoltaic market is characterized by a very rapid increase in power generation, and the rate of light loss has dropped from double digits to around 3%. Especially from the perspective of foreign trade, the overall advantage outweighs the disadvantages. In August 2018, the EU announced that anti-dumping and countervailing measures against PV products in China expired on September 3, 2018. This also means that the EU has come to an end for five years of "double opposition" in China.
In the past eight years, the global market share of photovoltaic products in China has become higher and higher. In 2018, China's total exports of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, cells, modules) totaled US$16.11 billion, the highest level after “double oppositionâ€. The export volume of all links exceeded 2017, and the component export volume was about 41GW, an increase of 30%.
In 2018, the concentration of PV module export market continued to decline, forming a diversified market combining traditional markets with emerging markets (South America, Middle East and North Africa). In view of the completion of overseas investment by domestic enterprises, the overseas layout is being matched and the construction of power stations is beginning to go out.
2018 is also the most active year for technological innovation in China's photovoltaic industry. There are new technologies in the fields of polysilicon, battery cells and component links.
In addition, from a global perspective, the competition pattern in the PV market has also changed, and production has been further concentrated in Southeast Asia and China. Foreign well-known companies continue to be at a disadvantage. In China, the production capacity of polysilicon is further shifting to the western region. The proportion of polysilicon production in the central and western regions such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai has increased from 41.4% in 2017 to over 50% in 2018.
In addition, industry concentration to further enhance the silicon part, showing GCL, Lungi, Central Jingke Big Four pattern. Specialized battery manufacturers began to rise, and the output of Tongwei, Aixu, Zhanyu, Zhonglai and Sunshine Branches increased rapidly. In terms of components, industrial concentration has further improved, and leading companies continue to maintain brand advantages.
The PV policy is guiding the industry to a high-quality development path, pursuing quality and efficiency. For the market situation in 2018, the photovoltaic market has many parts worthy of attention.
First, market demand and subsidy arrears are not coordinated. The sustainable development of the industry and the active promotion of the energy revolution need to maintain a certain market scale.
Second, the lack of coordination between steady growth and consolidation in the industry, there is growing production capacity, the stage tends to excess, industry needs to move towards integration of healthy and sustainable development. Currently faced with complex internal and external situation, the maintenance of stability and steady growth pressures, industry consolidation to bring greater pressure, backward production capacity and timely exit.
Third, the crystalline silicon absolute advantage of new technologies to flourish and lack of coordination between, watching from the domestic market is still mainly in large-scale power plants and rooftop distributed project-based, crystalline silicon cells market share increased year by year, and take the absolute lead. A single large pressure on other technology development.
Fourth, the lack of coordination between the number of uncoordinated multi-standard, new formats, new models and the existing management mechanism between hard and practice. On the one hand, new formats, new models, and new products are accelerating; on the other hand, the photovoltaic support model is still mainly based on ground power stations and distributed power stations, and the support for new formats needs to be improved.
In 2019, the global PV market is promising, the international installed market is everywhere, and the domestic PV market needs to control the rhythm. However, the market with a certain volume is no problem, and the Chinese market is relatively optimistic. The Chinese market is still a policy-oriented market, and the world is the same. The impact of policies on industrial development is very large. After realizing the parity online, we still need policy support. In the future, we must face steady growth and the energy revolution, and we need a stable and sustainable development of China's PV market.
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