In 2018, it is destined to be the critical point of the automobile market. On the one hand, the sales volume of the traditional automobile market is down, and it enters the cold winter in advance; on the other hand, the new energy vehicle's contrarian growth has become a new arena for various car companies. At the same time, a series of problems in the new energy automobile industry began to surface, and once again encountered growth troubles.
The scenery is good here.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic auto market has experienced a “hurricane and bitter rainâ€, but the new energy auto market has a unique scenery here. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, new energy vehicles still maintain double-digit growth. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 870,900 and 860,100 respectively, an increase of 69.95% and 75.59 respectively over the same period of the previous year. %.
At the just-concluded Guangzhou Auto Show, new energy vehicles are in a “blowout†trend, and more and more car brands are launching their new energy vehicle products. The debut and the launch of new new energy models, there are 20 models, including many of the high-heat models such as BYD Tang five-seat version, WEY P8GT, Beiqi EX5, Changan Yidong ET. Since the beginning of this year, with the new energy vehicles to drive sales, BAIC New Energy, BYD and other car companies have achieved good results. In the current new energy vehicle market, foreign brands, joint ventures and local car companies are highly competitive, and their own brands account for more than 90% of the domestic new energy vehicle market. From the structural point of view, BYD, Geely, and SAIC are three.
Recently, Shandong, Yunnan, Tianjin, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Anhui and other provinces have intensively issued relevant documents and set targets for the promotion of new energy vehicles in the region. Under the “blessing†of local government policies, new energy vehicles will usher in new development opportunities.
Potential problems emerge
Although the sales of new energy vehicles are constantly breaking through, a series of problems in the development of the entire industrial chain have begun to emerge.
First, the development of China's new energy vehicle industry faces structural overcapacity risks. The performance is: on the total, the risk of overcapacity of the whole vehicle and power battery is increased; structurally, the high-end capacity is insufficient and the low-end capacity is coexisting, the industry is blindly expanding, the investment is overheated, and some low-level enterprises adopt low-quality and low-price competition. The way to disrupt the market. Secondly, at present, China's new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles have no obvious competitive advantages, and there is still a big gap with internationally advanced new energy vehicles. The reliability, handling, and reputation of the vehicle are obviously insufficient. Third, the development of new energy vehicles in China is subject to the constraints of resources and environment. With the increase in the number of new energy vehicles, the main power battery resources such as lithium metal and cobalt are lacking. The stable supply of resources and the stability of price stability are more challenging. At the same time, problems such as recycling and utilization of power batteries are becoming more and more prominent.
In addition, there are still four major shortcomings in the development of new energy vehicles in China. First, the lack of technological innovation, the power battery has not yet achieved a fundamental breakthrough, some key components are still subject to people, the fuel cell vehicle industry chain is completely backward. Second, the market mechanism is insufficient. Due to the long-term implementation of the subsidy policy, many enterprises have suffered from policy dependence, resulting in insufficient innovation incentives for enterprises, insufficient attention to the market, and inability to keep up with consumer demand, research and development and production of high-end products. Third, the overall situation of charging difficulties has not changed fundamentally. Although the construction of charging facilities in China has accelerated in recent years, by the end of 2017, China has built a total of 195,000 public charging piles, but in the face of the demand for 1 million pure electric vehicles, at least It is necessary to build 300,000 piles to meet the needs, and the total amount is obviously insufficient. In addition, the charging pile has a series of problems such as unreasonable actual structure, unreasonable layout, unreasonable interface, and low utilization rate. Fourth, with the rapid growth of car ownership and the gradual aging of vehicle batteries, the safety risks of new energy vehicle products have increased. In particular, more than 40 incidents of fire and burning of new energy vehicles have occurred in China this year. The reasons are mostly electronic and mechanical failures, which means more secure safeguards are needed.
Facing two nodes
In the first half of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would cancel the restrictions on the foreign shares of new energy vehicles. At present, no matter international giants or Chinese car companies, they are accelerating the deployment of new energy vehicles and occupying the commanding heights of the industry. On the other hand, the development of new energy vehicles is being transmitted to the upstream and the middle of the industrial chain. Many small and medium-sized enterprises lack funds and technology. Faced with greater pressure.
In the post-subsidy era, the new energy auto industry will face two important time nodes. First, with the 2020 double-point “big test†and government subsidies terminated, new forces will be introduced in a big way. Foreign-funded auto companies and joint ventures will work together to eliminate the influence of government subsidies when buying cars. The program, hybrid and fuel vehicles will compete on the same stage, and the market competition will be extremely fierce.
The second node is expected to be 2025 at the latest. At that time, the price/performance ratio of electric vehicles will reach or exceed that of fuel vehicles. The power of the market will promote the transformation of automobile consumption into electric, and the fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will show a rising trend. For consumers, product quality, taste, brand and price will be the main factors in determining trade-offs.
Some industry experts believe that for the immature new energy vehicle industry, each stage of development will encounter new challenges. If the company fails to do adequate countermeasures, it will lay a more serious hidden danger for the later development, so as to affect the realization of the set goals. Even new energy auto companies that are temporarily in the leading position in sales can not relax. They should adjust their marketing strategies in a timely manner and implement competitive technical routes to maintain market advantages.
AWLOP CO.,LTD , https://www.awlop.com